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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

Strong couplet near Bassfield but no CC drop so far. Remains radar-indicated as of latest edit to the TOR.
 
New TOR for storm east of Union.
 
buckeye05 said:
Seeing photos of snapped power poles and sheet metal debris tangled in power lines in Decatur, AL. Seems apparent something touched down there.
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Yes, Spann showed those pictures a bit ago on live.
 
BMX has new mesoscale update in their AFD.
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 835 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms with a few embedded
circulations is moving generally east near 30 mph while the
individual storms are tracking northeast near 45 mph.

RAP model mesoscale analysis indicates winds over 100 kts at 200
mb across our northwest counties with significant divergence
aloft. This area was also experiencing southwesterly winds over
50 kts at 500 mb while a few shortwave impulses were analyzed in
the vicinity. 700 mb Omega values were depicted from -10 to -20
dPa/s with winds over 50 kts down to 700 mb. Conditions
dynamically are very favorable for mesocyclones and some tornadoes
with 0-0.5 km bulk shear over 45 kts across portions of our
northwestern counties and over 80 kts of 0-6 km shear. Storm-
relative helicity values were maximized across Walker/Winston
counties with another bullseye just west of Sumter and Pickens
Counties at this time with 0-1 km values just over 300 m2/s2 and
0-3 km values over 340 m2/s2. More than sufficient wind shear
exists and is co-located with SBCAPE values over 600 J/kg with a
narrow corridor with values over 1000 J/kg from Northern Sumter
into Western Tuscaloosa Counties. We just released a special 15z
sounding that we will be examining over the next hour.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue to move east ,
affecting areas near and west of the I-59 corridor though 11 am
this morning, then affecting areas further east. The current
tornado watch is valid until 1 pm and most certainly will need to
either be locally extended or more likely be included expanded
further east in a replacement watch later today. Damaging
straight-line winds with large hail and a continued tornado threat
will accompany the line as it continues moving east through the
day. Instability values will continue to build while overall shear
is expected to slowly decrease as surface low pressure tracks
further northeast of the area, but conditions are expected to
remain favorable for severe weather along and ahead of the line of
storms.

The next update is scheduled to be issued before 11 am CST.
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All 12z CAM guidance is pretty impressive for this event.
 
TOR, W AL.
 
Strong tornado possible with cells propagating from MS into AL, per new MD.
Edit: Text disco. below.
SUMMARY...The risk for a couple of tornadoes will continue this
morning, including the possibility for a strong tornado. An
additional tornado watch will likely need to be considered for far
southeast MS into southwest and south-central AL later this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and single-site 88D data show a broken
band of embedded cluster and quasi-discrete supercells from 40 mi
WSW of Tuscaloosa extending southwestward to 30 mi W of Hattiesburg.
Analysis of upper-air RAOB data this morning shows relatively cool
mid-level profiles with -15.7 deg C at Birmingham and -14.1 deg C at
Jackson. Although surface dewpoints are only in the lower 60s over
central AL and low-mid 60s in southern MS, the quality of the
moisture through a 100-mb deep layer above the surface is notable
when combined with the cool mid-level temperature profile. RAP
forecast soundings this morning into the midday hours show buoyancy
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with large low-level hodographs. As a
result, the mesoscale environment appears favorable for a tornado
risk from eastern and southeastern MS northeastward into
west-central AL over the next few couple of hours. A strong tornado
is possible. The activity over southeast LA and southern MS will
eventually shift eastward into far southeast MS and southwest AL
towards the midday.
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