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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

KevinH said:
It will be interesting to see what the next D1 update says in about 90 mins. I don’t think there will be an upgrade to MOD, but I would not be surprised to see another upgrade to tornado risk.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Another upgrade in tornado risk requires a moderate
 
KevinH said:
It will be interesting to see what the next D1 update says in about 90 mins. I don’t think there will be an upgrade to MOD, but I would not be surprised to see another upgrade to tornado risk.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
A hatched area wouldn't be unreasonable considering the uptrending in model data.
 
Small Tornado Watch being considered ahead of the main storms that will affect North-Central and West-Central GA later today.
Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...southern TN...far northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121513Z - 121615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A small tornado watch is being considered for southern TN
into far northwest GA as a squall line continues to move east
towards the area later this morning and into the midday hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over southern middle
TN extending southwest into northern AL. Surface analysis shows
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s with temperatures into the mid
60s. KHTX VAD shows strong southwesterly mid-level flow (70 kt
around 6 km AGL) and forecast soundings show enlarged low-level
hodographs. Although buoyancy is seemingly the limiting ingredient,
forecast soundings show around 250 J/kg MLCAPE, likely adequate for
a continued risk for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Smith/Guyer.. 01/12/2023
Click to expand...
 
New AFD short-range disco. from FFC.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

It is setting up to be a potentially active day across North and
Central GA. Wedge front across the northeast is gradually breaking
down as a developing storm system to our west continues to trek
eastward. Portions of southwest GA are already seeing dewpoints
in the low 60s as southerly/southwesterly flow gradually increases
ahead of an approaching storm system. Latest GOES satellite
imagery indicates portions of this same area are also seeing some
breaks in the clouds, which is not an ideal sign but from a
meteorological standpoint could contribute to a little bit better
instability further contributing to the development of severe
storms later this afternoon. Still looks like the primary hazards
will be strong damaging winds and some spin up tornadoes. Latest
12z FFC RAOB sounding indicates a sharp inversion at 850mb with a
good bit of dry air aloft. This has resulted in DCAPE around
600J/Kg. So certainly a potential for those winds aloft to mix
down to the surface resulting in strong to severe winds/wind
gusts. A Wind Advisory will remain in effect for the entire
forecast area from 11AM to 11PM with sustained winds of 15-20MPH
and gusts of 30-40MPH. This is in association with a strong
gradient developing ahead of the storm system. So definitely will
be a warm, breezy day today despite the severe weather potential
later this afternoon. Stay weather aware folks!
Click to expand...
 
KevinH said:
It will be interesting to see what the next D1 update says in about 90 mins. I don’t think there will be an upgrade to MOD, but I would not be surprised to see another upgrade to tornado risk.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I would be surprised to see them not upgrade to hatch. Soundings this morning have been quite impressive and it has been trending more discrete. Like what @andyhb said the 12z CAMs suite is quite impressive. Posting UH tracks to put it into simple terms
uh25_max.us_se.png

uh25_max.us_se.png

uh25_max.us_se.png
 
Certainly been an interesting morning; had strong gusty winds and pea sized hail with the leading edge NW of Jasper. The segment that went tornado warned over Smith Lake passed overhead just before tightening and got to see low ragged clouds and a strong wind shift. One hour rainfall total at 0.54"
 
Hearing roof torn off a home and a warehouse in Williamstown, KY. Also hearing of damage to buildings in Harrodsburg, KY. I believe I saw embedded circulations pass over both of those towns early this morning.
 
Cobb County district schools are considering early dismissal. We don't typically do that for severe weather.
 
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