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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

Brice said:
Seems like a hint, if they’re issuing a big 10%, then is the SPC confident that they’ll issue a tornado-generated MDT risk for the next update?
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They are waiting and seeing. They mentioned that the reason for the enlarged tornado probs was because they had more confidence on a favourable environment further north - not necessarily that they are 'making room' for a Moderate.
 
They also mentioned possible upgrades
UK_EF4 said:
They are waiting and seeing. They mentioned that the reason for the enlarged tornado probs was because they had more confidence on a favourable environment further north - not necessarily that they are 'making room' for a Moderate.
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xJownage said:
Comparing any event to 4/27 is just wrong, because the amount of things that have to swing a certain way in both the synoptic and mesoscale setup is absolutely insane to get an outbreak of that caliber. There's a reason we've only ever observed two outbreaks of that caliber. Event comparison with regards to synoptic setup is very useful for pattern recognition purposes, but our lack of understanding of weather on a large scale, and how that translates to output of very fickle phenomena like tornadoes, means you can't have expected similarities in output. It's just too hard to predict.
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I agree. So many things are different outbreak to outbreak. I would argue that 3/21/32 and 2/19/1884 were probably of a similar caliber, at least regionally.
 


I think this may have been partially missed (probably because most were asleep), but I watched a line of storms produce a few couplets this morning, some of which were intense (benefit of being on UK time), and am now interested to have seen this. Bear in mind the parameter space which produced this will be similar or even improve today, which does make me concerned that we could definitely see some EF2-EF3 tornadoes, though ofc that depends massively on getting discrete sustained supercells.
 
Casuarina Head said:
No one is saying that people should not be prepared. However, there are scientific criteria that must be met for an event to qualify as an outbreak, meet the MDT category, etc. For future reference these details are important. The problem is that there is a lack of perspective. Due to politicisation and climate-change hysteria even minor events are now being used as “proof” that climate change is causing much more severe events. As @CheeselandSkies mentioned, currently there is little reason to believe that we will see multiple intense tornado families, as opposed to just one.
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And what “scientific criteria” must be met for an event to qualify as an outbreak, and who defines said “criteria”? I’d like to see some SPC/NOAA, or some other reputable website stating.

I am genuinely curious.
 
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KevinH said:
ROFL!!! And what “scientific criteria” must be met for an event to qualify as an outbreak, and who defines said “criteria”? I’d like to see some SPC/NOAA, or some other reputable website stating.

I am genuinely curious.
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I believe an outbreak is 12 or more tornadoes. And someone has come up with a calculation for the number of tornadoes mathematically expected in a certain SPC risk, so that can be used roughly to verify SPC risks in a technical way away from just eyeballing it and seeing.
 
It's not a good idea to compare an outbreak to another outbreak, as they all are very different and impact people very differently. However, each outbreak can teach us a little more about the science. Also, understand how small, subtle differences can have large impacts on each event. Also, you must consider climatology differences. An event in February is not going to look like an event in April--what is necessary for one season, isn't as important in another. We all have our opinions on what will happen, but what matters most is, WHY so we all can learn and carry that forward in future events in hopes of saving lives.
 
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