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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

UK_EF4 said:
View attachment 17858
Definitely a strong signal for supercells along that ENH risk corridor... whether we see strong tornadoes probably depends most on low level lapse rates, and from what I've just eyeballed it looks like the lower levels seem more unstable in forecast soundings as opposed to about 24 hours ago, a trend which will likely continue through the day. An intense tornado definitely seems possible to me if a discrete supercell manages to become robust and properly surface based.
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Do you have this same graphic for 12 hours later as the storm tracks across AL? I have not seen THIS graphic before, but I like it. Lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Good post @Richardjacks.

I think everybody should realize, just take your weather precautions no matter whether you’re in the slight, enhanced, or moderate possibly tommorow. Just have a way to get weather alerts. And place to go, I'll post a storm shelter list tonight if somebody else hasn't. Kinda sets some red flags when a meteorologist seems weary of a deep south event. Wether this is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency or a boom. No need to panic!
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I recently saw a strong tornado that occurred in a slight area. I am trying to remember where/when. Dixie doesn’t care about risk categories, Dixie does what Dixie wants…. PERIOD.
 
Tomorrow is going to be a really good day to chase in central Alabama. Sunny skies, and from what I see a majority of low precipitation supercells. Get southeast of the storm and you may see a show. That's why I'm going to try and position my self in west Birmingham near Homewood and the beacon ridge tower and hope a storm takes that north track of Birmingham and I'll have a bird eyes view of a wall cloud or tornado possibly
 
Austin Dawg said:
Be careful night time is a dangerous time to be chasing storms. Having hail stones falling on your vehicle is no fun at all
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Thank you. Yea I have a dedicated storm chasing car.....2011 Camry. Been in over 50 hail storms and has dents all over it with a few hail stone circle cracks in the windshield.

Haha I can't even get it super clean when I wash it anymore because the clear coat has been destroyed.

I leave my nice rides at home.
 
Of course, Northern Monroe County MS is in the hot zone per usual.
 
The first watch of the day is out, and it's a severe thunderstorm watch:

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

(20/5 tornado probabilities.)
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Tomorrow is going to be a really good day to chase in central Alabama. Sunny skies, and from what I see a majority of low precipitation supercells. Get southeast of the storm and you may see a show. That's why I'm going to try and position my self in west Birmingham near Homewood and the beacon ridge tower and hope a storm takes that north track of Birmingham and I'll have a bird eyes view of a wall cloud or tornado possibly
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I hope you are disappointed since I live north of Bham…. but you are correct on the typical tornado track.
 
almost game time, what type of real time stuff should we be monitoring with this system? Is the sun peaking out tomorrow going to be one of those type things to watch out for? dew points over performing CAMs? etc?
 
The Nino said:
almost game time, what type of real time stuff should we be monitoring with this system? Is the sun peaking out tomorrow going to be one of those type things to watch out for? dew points over performing CAMs? etc?
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Possibly, probably will depend on how weak the 700mb inversion is or where a boundary sits and teams up hand in hand with the sunlight lol.

Likely won't know for those things until tomorrow morning.
 
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