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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

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Found the needle in the haystack. Here's a PDS tor sounding for MS Delta at midnight.
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
I just finished a 1000 line Powershell script and then had to setup SAML/SSO authentication with Azure for my company's Palo Alto firewalls.

Now I'm prepping to migrate the Exchange(email) servers from a company we just acquired to our Exchange environment.

I haven't ate anything or drank any coffee yet so I feel brain-dead at the moment haha.
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Hi, fellow IT person!


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Wonder if the Ohio Valley may steal the show on Thursday if sufficient destabilization can take place and the surface winds can remain closer to southerly. Very strong mid tropospheric flow overlaps that region and the resulting long, slightly curved hodographs are pretty typical of your more notable events in that area. Forcing is also stronger since it's closer to the surface low and mid-level shortwave.

Also, re: WeatherBell STP, the calculation they use for that remains wrong and overcooked.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Starting get little more interesting in the west Tennessee region . Latest cams starting pick up super cells crossing from ms River tomorrow evening out Arkansas
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You'll probably have a chance for severe weather all the way up into Kentucky. But the more robust warm sector will be along the deep south states. Seems like in these type of events there's always a couple pesky storms way north of the actual main threat lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
You'll probably have a chance for severe weather all the way up into Kentucky. But the more robust warm sector will be along the deep south states. Seems like in these type of events there's always a couple pesky storms way north of the actual main threat lol
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Tomorrow evening I’m talking about . Cams showing some super cells coming up from se Arkansas to sw Tennessee, warm front gets north from these areas tomorrow , Thursday I’m seeing what Andy is saying for Thursday , Ohio valley May see worst
 
andyhb said:
Wonder if the Ohio Valley may steal the show on Thursday if sufficient destabilization can take place and the surface winds can remain closer to southerly. Very strong mid tropospheric flow overlaps that region and the resulting long, slightly curved hodographs are pretty typical of your more notable events in that area. Forcing is also stronger since it's closer to the surface low and mid-level shortwave.

Also, re: WeatherBell STP, the calculation they use for that remains wrong and overcooked.
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It's lower than cod meteorology STP lol, I don't think it's that's overcooked. What calculation would you recommend? EHI in it's place?
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Tomorrow evening I’m talking about . Cams showing some super cells coming up from se Arkansas to sw Tennessee, warm front gets north from these areas tomorrow , Thursday I’m seeing what Andy is saying for Thursday , Ohio valley May see worst
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Oh lol I got my days mixed up, yeah I agree on the Thursday afternoon threat maybe being a bigger producer in the ohio valley then southeast.

More so leaning to a linear damaging wind threat with a spin ups in Alabama or atleast the southeast half of Alabama.
 
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