ashtonlemleywx
Member
Found the needle in the haystack. Here's a PDS tor sounding for MS Delta at midnight.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Found the needle in the haystack. Here's a PDS tor sounding for MS Delta at midnight.
keithGA
Member
KevinH
Member
Do you have a picture or GIF?
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Kevin I posted it earlier.
The environmental parameters are really good.
Low level lapse rates are in question though.
Wonder if the Ohio Valley may steal the show on Thursday if sufficient destabilization can take place and the surface winds can remain closer to southerly. Very strong mid tropospheric flow overlaps that region and the resulting long, slightly curved hodographs are pretty typical of your more notable events in that area. Forcing is also stronger since it's closer to the surface low and mid-level shortwave.
Also, re: WeatherBell STP, the calculation they use for that remains wrong and overcooked.
Also, re: WeatherBell STP, the calculation they use for that remains wrong and overcooked.
GTWXAlum
Member
Middle Tennessee isn't exempt from this either all things considered
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
I don’t see the instability reaching an adequate level up here for tornadoes. Strong straight lines winds absolutely.
tennessee storm chaser
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Starting get little more interesting in the west Tennessee region . Latest cams starting pick up super cells crossing from ms River tomorrow evening out Arkansas
You'll probably have a chance for severe weather all the way up into Kentucky. But the more robust warm sector will be along the deep south states. Seems like in these type of events there's always a couple pesky storms way north of the actual main threat lol
tennessee storm chaser
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Tomorrow evening I’m talking about . Cams showing some super cells coming up from se Arkansas to sw Tennessee, warm front gets north from these areas tomorrow , Thursday I’m seeing what Andy is saying for Thursday , Ohio valley May see worst
It's lower than cod meteorology STP lol, I don't think it's that's overcooked. What calculation would you recommend? EHI in it's place?
Oh lol I got my days mixed up, yeah I agree on the Thursday afternoon threat maybe being a bigger producer in the ohio valley then southeast.
More so leaning to a linear damaging wind threat with a spin ups in Alabama or atleast the southeast half of Alabama.
tennessee storm chaser
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Wouldn’t shock me least see SPC put out enhanced risk morning s update from the delta region towards Memphis /
ashtonlemleywx
Member
I think they'll do it sooner that that. Enhanced risk for Wed.
Thurs could end up being mod risk.
Tomcats Forever!
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Yeah, i'm pretty sure i've seen them put out STP numbers in the twenties and thirties a couple of times.
Been using WeatherBell since it has numbers instead of the others. O well.
I wish the MMFS Was centered over Mississippi, I think I may shoot him a tweet in a bit if he will center it over Mississippi. 
