And let's just remember that the EF-0 tornado (pictured below that I just happened to capture on my GoPro 11) that occurred 2 miles west of Smithville, MS on February 16th happened on a Level 3 Enhanced Risk with a 10% SIG TOR hatch. Day 3 was just a Slight Risk.
March 24th: Day 3 Enhanced Risk became a Moderate Risk by Day 1. EF-3 Amory, MS happened.
Don't write it off yet. I've made the mistake before writing off an event that ended up producing more than anticipated. Never again.
I honestly don't care what the models show or don't show at this point. Models are a tool to help, but knowing how it works across the Gulf States and learning from past events is the way to do it. A threat is a threat no matter the risk. Heck the southern Itawamba County tornado in June occurred during a 2% TOR prob and then the Muldon, MS tornado in southern Monroe County that occurred on January 12th also occurred in a 2% TOR prob.