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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023

JBishopwx

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Memphis:
While severe weather ingredients appear to overlap, models
continue to slightly differ with the evolution of the trough as it
moves in Saturday afternoon and evening. The position will affect
the position of a surface low and ultimately the specific type of
convective forcing. While model uncertainty still remains wrt
position of key features, a general severe threat does appear to
be materializing for at least southwestern portions of our
forecast area. After collaboration with SPC, a broad Slight Risk
has been drawn from the ArkLaTex and into southwest portions of
our forecast area. The risk could extend into the overnight hours
as the cold front doesn`t move through until late Saturday night
 

Taylor Campbell

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I like that this potential falls on the weekend. Perhaps a chase day ahead.
 

JBishopwx

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Cips and CSU for Saturday. I can't get it to download on my phone, but 2% tor probs on CIPS
Blend_fill_ALL (6).pngday6_nospc_latest.png
 

JBishopwx

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I see we have a thread now. In the words of good old JR, Jim Ross, business is about to pick up.
 

TH2002

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Why do you say that?
Just a feelin'... but it's also worth noting that if this event reaches its potential ceiling, Dec. 10 could have two major outbreaks under its belt like you know what does (there was the 2014 outbreak a few years after 2011's). But hey, Mother Nature is a strange mistress so who knows?
 
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Looks like (at least on today's 12Z GFS) MS/AL will be in the right entrance region of the jet (one of the two favored areas for upward motion). The more classic left exit/triple point region will be over Indiana but moisture looks fairly paltry there, at least as things stand now.

Also, based on that run this system has the potential to cause significant winter weather issues for the upper Midwest region next Saturday on the back side of the surface low. Being six days out though, all that is still quite up in the air.
 

JPWX

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12z GFS sounding for Monroe County, MS. Plus bulk shear values off the 12z Euro. Does anyone have the 12z Euro soundings? I don't have pivotalweatherplus to access those.
 

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JBishopwx

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NWS Jackson AFD:
As implied earlier, confidence is increasing that our greatest
weather impacts are slated for this weekend when a strong shortwave
trough will cross the Rockies and dig southward as it progresses
across the Southern Plains. This is where some key differences arise
in the NWP guidance with some solutions phased with the northern
stream and faster (e.g., GFS), while others show a more
amplified/slower wave with greater southern stream influence
(e.g, ECMWF and GEM). Have seen this story play out before with
the GFS often too fast given the amount of vorticity crossing the
Rockies, so it won't be surprising if the slower solutions
prevail.

The significance of the slower (stream separated) solutions would be
greater opportunity for low level moisture transport and
destabilization as we go into Saturday afternoon/evening, with
perhaps greater potential for severe weather (all modes) setting up
over southern portions of the forecast area. We are currently
advertising a severe weather threat per SPC outlooks for the weekend
over western portions of the area, and it is likely there will be
some changes in future outlooks as details come more into focus and
confidence increases. Otherwise, expect colder air to waste no time
surging into the area Sunday/Sunday night behind what will likely be
a deepening system. /EC/
 
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