Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[jiharris0220]

I was clamoring for a high risk about a day ago just strictly looking at that crazy HRRR run. But even today, the CAMs were not in agreement at all as to what was going to happen. When there is that much model uncertainty, it really is hard to accurately forecast. I think a 15% hatched was a little overstated in hindsight, but it was justifiable. All the parameters were there, but the lack of a proper lifting mechanism for most areas prevented this event from seeing it's ceiling.

All the CAMs are a great tool, but some of us forget that they are tools to make a forecast. Forecasting is still very much a human job.

It really wasn’t overstated, they had every reason for a moderate, sometimes things just don’t pan out to what was forecasted.

Even though the failure modes were there, there’s hardly any event that doesn’t have them.

Had those storms in TX had remained discrete or developed further north, this would’ve been a completely different outcome.

 

[Kds86z]

May 6 had at least barnsdall eF4. This is more a bust. Of course I wish no more destruction on Oklahoma this spring. 2 ef4s and 6 deaths in last month.

 

[TornadoFan17]

It really wasn’t overstated, they had every reason for a moderate, sometimes things just don’t pan out to what was forecasted.

Overstated is the wrong word. Looking back on this event, people will say it was overforecasted. But the MOD was perfectly reasonable.

 

[jiharris0220]

May 6 had at least barnsdall eF4. This is more a bust. Of course I wish no more destruction on Oklahoma this spring. 2 ef4s and 6 deaths in last month.

Yea, this is one of those rare events where it’s safe to say, it busted, although there were quite a few tornadoes today in tx and Oklahoma.

Obviously a far cry from the violent tornado potential this set up had.

 

[Kds86z]

Still though, we’re at over 600 tornado confirmed for April/may and counting. Hard to believe it’ll be a month tomorrow since that NE/Ia outbreak and all that’s happened inbetween. 16 fatalities unfortunately.

 

[Jellyroll]

Just glad nothing bad has ever come out of a line from south of St. Louis to Evansville IN before.

 

[Brice W]

Yea, this is one of those rare events where it’s safe to say, it busted, although there were quite a few tornadoes today in tx and Oklahoma.

Obviously a far cry from the violent tornado potential this set up had.

I think weather will continue to baffle all of us. From a near slam dunk HIGH RISK today for yesterday’s forecast, to earlier this morning with a lot of questions and uncertainties, I think this is the best case scenario for a system like this that had so much potential to be horrific.

 

[cg9450]

I think weather will continue to baffle all of us. From a near slam dunk HIGH RISK today for yesterday’s forecast, to earlier this morning with a lot of questions and uncertainties, I think this is the best case scenario for a system like this that had so much potential to be horrific.

Amen

 

[Kds86z]

We got a warning for OK now..

 

[cg9450]

Tor warn near red rock ok

 

[TornadoFan]

And of course, it's all by itself.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[rushdude]

It's better that the outbreak choked than to be seeing page after page of destruction and bad news

 

[kcyalater]

it ain’t over yet, folks.

 

[TornadoFan]

And now the storm along the Red River is tornado warned.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

"Night wedges incoming" (from ST Discord, yet again) seems to be the refrain of 2024 in the Plains, unfortunately.

 

[Evan]

TDS?

 

[TornadoFan]

I think it is producing.

 

[TornadoFan]

I swear this happens everytime I quit watching the weather.