Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Muwx]

SPC update is late

 

[Kds86z]

The 01z mesoanalysis for OKC still shows an impressive parameter space as we head into the evening hours, but it remains to be seen if anything else develops. So far, the day has had a few impressive spin-ups but nothing maintained long-term and nothing crazy it seems.

Always tomorrow I guess lol

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

The 01z mesoanalysis for OKC still shows an impressive parameter space as we head into the evening hours, but it remains to be seen if anything else develops. So far, the day has had a few impressive spin-ups but nothing maintained long-term and nothing crazy it seems.

Yeah.. what good is a roaring LLJ if there isn’t a primed cell in place to even take advantage of it. Think I’m going to call it a night on this one

 

[Tennie]

The latest HRRR run shows things dying down fairly quickly overnight. I'll let you make of that what you will.

 

[Maxis_s]

Purple!

 

[Evan]

If today had been a slight risk we'd probably be on our 7th tornado emergency of the day.

 

[TornadoFan]

SPC is keeping the moderate risk, but most of Oklahoma is out of it.

 

[MMWX]

New SPC outlook has a much smaller MOD. Northern OK, SW Kansas, and SE Missouri.

15% Hatched on OK and Kansas border.

 

[Maxis_s]

SPC is keeping the moderate risk, but most of Oklahoma is out of it.

Oh, so things are gonna overperform now because that's how things work now.

 

[MMWX]

Oh, so things are gonna overperform now because that's how things work now.

Nothing was downgraded?

 

[TornadoFan]

Nothing was downgraded?

Nope.

 

[Maxis_s]

Nothing was downgraded?

Central and south OK got downgraded, so now that area's gonna overperform according to 2024 logic

 

[MMWX]

Nope.

I know. I'm asking why they are acting like it's going to overperform now.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Not a full categorical downgrade, but things were scaled back in coverage a good bit.

 

[Kds86z]

Oh, so things are gonna overperform now because that's how things work now.

Bingo

 

[MMWX]

Central and south OK got downgraded, so now that area's gonna overperform according to 2024 logic

They shrunk the risk to better represent what is currently going on. There is still a 15% hatched where it is appropriate.

 

[rushdude]

Is there a possibility of any surprises for north TX? Feels like the heat hasn't gone away here (my weather app says temp here is 86°F)
There hasn't been a drop of rain since yesterday

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Southern OK storm (the one that would have been most likely to produce a significant tornado in that area) is getting that skinny, anemic look like it's about to be snuffed out by capping. Ought to have a pretty structure as that happens, anyway.

SPC was wise to hold off on the high risk given what happened today was pretty well picked up on by models overnight and this morning. When all is said and done the 15 hatch/PDS designation and probabilities on the watch might even prove to have been a bit much, but given the potential had everything gone right for the storms I won't quibble about that.

It was something to watch the big failure mode for this setup go from "Will any storms fire?" to "Will splits and outflow interactions mess up the environment?" in pretty much one model cycle.

 

[MMWX]

HRRR for tomorrow painting a more QLCS storm mode.

 

[Maxis_s]

Funny how we went from "too few storms" to "too many storms" in less than 24 hours today when it came to forecasting