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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

Casuarina Head said:
Are the storms south of the Red River likely to limit destabilisation and inflow over the warm sector farther north, in OK, preventing those HRRR/NAM solutions?
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Just at an initial glance, they seem to be more cellular and less cold pooling. So, if that remains the case, probably not. It still can't be ruled out though.
 
Casuarina Head said:
Are the storms south of the Red River likely to limit destabilisation and inflow over the warm sector farther north, in OK, preventing those HRRR/NAM solutions?
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Not looking likely at this point because destabilizing has long occurred already.

Cape values and dew points in Oklahoma are nearing 7000 and middle 70s, it’s going to take a lot to sap that up.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Not looking likely at this point because destabilizing has long occurred already.
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The concern was, despite that being the case, the storms could congeal and cold pool and send outflow outward to work over the instability that's already in place to the north. But that doesn't appear to be happening so far.
 
Fred Gossage said:
The concern was, despite that being the case, the storms could congeal and cold pool and send outflow outward to work over the instability that's already in place to the north. But that doesn't appear to be happening so far.
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@Fred Gossage Per mesoscale analysis, in your view, does the environment locally favour upscale growth within the next two to three hours?

Personally, I have trouble believing that those cells down in N TX will stay discrete long enough to avoid creating a cold pool. But we shall certainly wait and see.
 
Last edited:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southcentral Kansas
Western and Central Oklahoma
Extreme Northcentral Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorm development is expected to
continue through this evening, with storms moving generally east
across the watch area. The risk for strong, long-track tornadoes
will exist, in addition to giant hail, possibly up to 5 inches in
diameter. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 75 mph can
also be expected.
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1716668941328.png

90/80 probs
 
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