hurricaneguy
Member
That was huge shift on the Day 2 outlook
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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
- Start date
Should also point out that a High Risk was almost issued with that day 2, if I’m reading that with the correct context.
From the discussion:
"Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time."
"Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time."
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Putting out the @andyhb @Fred Gossage bat signals
Ledian
Member
Right? Was not expecting such a big moderate risk area.
jiharris0220
Member
So pretty much if and when the cams actually start to initiate numerous storms is when they will pull the trigger.
TornadoFan
Member
My first reaction was
Kds86z
Member
So.. what changed? lol
jiharris0220
Member
Extremely rarely do you get with these setups where the only failure mode is convective coverage.
The SPC didn’t even remotely mention that no convection was going to form, they just aren’t confident in the amount of coverage.
Basically unless something drastically changes there’s pretty much nothing preventing a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma.
The SPC didn’t even remotely mention that no convection was going to form, they just aren’t confident in the amount of coverage.
Basically unless something drastically changes there’s pretty much nothing preventing a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma.
Never mind, holy cow, what an outlook.
hurricaneguy
Member
I literally thought the May 6th outlook had been posted by mistake. Oklahoma has had a rough month geez
SmokeEater
Member
Jesus, this is literally one of the strongest worded day 2's I've ever seen....
The end result will be a rare combination of instability and sheara cross the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail.
The end result will be a rare combination of instability and sheara cross the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail.
If they go high risk with this, then it’s going to be a very large one. Everything lining up for a major event is terrifying, except for the question of storm coverage.
SmokeEater
Member
The fact that they're even mentioning high already....
jiharris0220
Member
Honestly though, what the hell is up with the cams? It looks like the hrrr is the only one that seemingly sees reality.
There’s more than enough forcing, a sharp dry line, plenty of high lapse rates. The cap is by no means very stout, quite perplexing indeed.
There’s more than enough forcing, a sharp dry line, plenty of high lapse rates. The cap is by no means very stout, quite perplexing indeed.
Kds86z
Member
Yeah. Are they on to something?