Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[hurricaneguy]

That was huge shift on the Day 2 outlook

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Should also point out that a High Risk was almost issued with that day 2, if I’m reading that with the correct context.

 

[South AL Wx]

From the discussion:

"Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time."

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Putting out the @andyhb @Fred Gossage bat signals

 

[Ledian]

That was huge shift on the Day 2 outlook

Right? Was not expecting such a big moderate risk area.

 

[jiharris0220]

So pretty much if and when the cams actually start to initiate numerous storms is when they will pull the trigger.

 

[kevinrock]

Wow that's strong wording for the day 2 update

 

[Maxis_s]

What did I just miss...

 

[Clancy]

Man, what an escalation from the 1st D2.

 

[TornadoFan]

My first reaction was

 

[Kds86z]

So.. what changed? lol

 

[jiharris0220]

Extremely rarely do you get with these setups where the only failure mode is convective coverage.

The SPC didn’t even remotely mention that no convection was going to form, they just aren’t confident in the amount of coverage.

Basically unless something drastically changes there’s pretty much nothing preventing a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma.

 

[Brice W]

What part of the discussion?

Never mind, holy cow, what an outlook.

 

[hurricaneguy]

I literally thought the May 6th outlook had been posted by mistake. Oklahoma has had a rough month geez

 

[Brice W]

This is the most volatile D2 outlooks I’ve seen since 5/20/19.

 

[SmokeEater]

Jesus, this is literally one of the strongest worded day 2's I've ever seen....

The end result will be a rare combination of instability and sheara cross the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail.

 

[slenker]

If they go high risk with this, then it’s going to be a very large one. Everything lining up for a major event is terrifying, except for the question of storm coverage.

 

[SmokeEater]

If they go high risk with this, then it’s going to be a very large one. Everything lining up for a major event is terrifying, except for the question of storm coverage.

The fact that they're even mentioning high already....

 

[jiharris0220]

Honestly though, what the hell is up with the cams? It looks like the hrrr is the only one that seemingly sees reality.

There’s more than enough forcing, a sharp dry line, plenty of high lapse rates. The cap is by no means very stout, quite perplexing indeed.

 

[Kds86z]

Honestly though, what the hell is up with the cams? It looks like the hrrr is the only one that seemingly sees reality.

There’s more than enough forcing, a sharp dry line, plenty of high lapse rates. The cap is by no means very stout, quite perplexing indeed.

Yeah. Are they on to something?