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April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
- Start date
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
I mean look, as much as I disagree with him very often, he’s not exactly wrong. I wouldn’t say high likelihood, but there’s many a chase on the plains that were blue sky cap busts. STP values are pretty and all, but if there isn’t a discrete supercell around to take advantage of that environment, it’s a moot point. The most violent tornado on 5/6 was way off to the east from those parameters when it hit Barnsdall.
Oh for sure. I just don't think it's a likelihood that there's absolutely nothing. There is some stronger forcing that should come, albeit around evening. The cap does appear a bit weaker in some spots so I think it's pretty likely that at least a couple storms should be able to break through the cap.
TornadoFan
Member
Stop it.
slenker
Member
I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that this ends up being a cap bust… but there probably will be at least 2-3 intense storms tomorrow, with very significant tornado potential, based on the parameters we’re seeing.
Also, this year has not only been historic, but very strange in general. The days with 5% contours have been very active this year, while some of the higher end days have been “busts” (definitely not inactive by any stretch though)
Also, this year has not only been historic, but very strange in general. The days with 5% contours have been very active this year, while some of the higher end days have been “busts” (definitely not inactive by any stretch though)
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Fascinating. To me it just shows how much more we have to learn, and that our models and forecasters know the ingredients, but sometimes not the recipe.
jiharris0220
Member
?
Not sure what exactly he said wrong here.
Other than the hrrr not many cam models show much convection at all in Oklahoma, its not a stretch to say there’s a high chance nothing will happen.
Kds86z
Member
Ok wow.. the new day 2, V word
What part of the discussion?
jiharris0220
Member
I will like to retract my earlier statement.
Wind Driven Coconut
Well-Known Member
We just moved from vaguely worded initial day 2 to one of the strongest worded day 2 outlooks I’ve seen in a long time.
jiharris0220
Member
Kds86z
Member
Yeah like what the world….. just happened lol
TornadoFan
Member
Now I'm curious if we'll get a purple area tomorrow.
slenker
Member
They seem to be quite confident in storms firing without a problem, which is a little surprising to me. I still think there’s a chance for the cap being stout, but I trust the SPC forecasters more than my own opinion, lol
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Wow.. not just the V word but “several strong”, wonder what they’re seeing?
Kds86z
Member
And it wasn’t broyles
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Yeah, look he’s a bright guy obviously and has a grasp on some meteorological concepts. I don’t ever have any issues with his conservative outlook or opinions on a setup, it’s when he starts throwing in his “theories” that he loses me.
jiharris0220
Member
They’re probably straight up ignoring the cams on firing no convection in the warm sector.
With how strong the jet will be across the state and sharpness of the dry line I guess they’re confident enough that the models are out on a loop.
Kds86z
Member
They did say high word ..
