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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

Maxis_s said:
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I mean look, as much as I disagree with him very often, he’s not exactly wrong. I wouldn’t say high likelihood, but there’s many a chase on the plains that were blue sky cap busts. STP values are pretty and all, but if there isn’t a discrete supercell around to take advantage of that environment, it’s a moot point. The most violent tornado on 5/6 was way off to the east from those parameters when it hit Barnsdall.
 
Tempestas Tonitrua said:
I mean look, as much as I disagree with him very often, he’s not exactly wrong. I wouldn’t say high likelihood, but there’s many a chase on the plains that were blue sky cap busts. STP values are pretty and all, but if there isn’t a discrete supercell around to take advantage of that environment, it’s a moot point. The most violent tornado on 5/6 was way off to the east from those parameters when it hit Barnsdall.
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Oh for sure. I just don't think it's a likelihood that there's absolutely nothing. There is some stronger forcing that should come, albeit around evening. The cap does appear a bit weaker in some spots so I think it's pretty likely that at least a couple storms should be able to break through the cap.
 
I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that this ends up being a cap Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency… but there probably will be at least 2-3 intense storms tomorrow, with very significant tornado potential, based on the parameters we’re seeing.

Also, this year has not only been historic, but very strange in general. The days with 5% contours have been very active this year, while some of the higher end days have been “busts” (definitely not inactive by any stretch though)
 
slenker said:
I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that this ends up being a cap Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency… but there probably will be at least 2-3 intense storms tomorrow, with very significant tornado potential, based on the parameters we’re seeing.

Also, this year has not only been historic, but very strange in general. The days with 5% contours have been very active this year, while some of the higher end days have been “busts” (definitely not inactive by any stretch though)
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Fascinating. To me it just shows how much more we have to learn, and that our models and forecasters know the ingredients, but sometimes not the recipe.
 
jiharris0220 said:
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Not sure what exactly he said wrong here.

Other than the hrrr not many cam models show much convection at all in Oklahoma, its not a stretch to say there’s a high chance nothing will happen.
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Yeah, look he’s a bright guy obviously and has a grasp on some meteorological concepts. I don’t ever have any issues with his conservative outlook or opinions on a setup, it’s when he starts throwing in his “theories” that he loses me.
 
Tempestas Tonitrua said:
Wow.. not just the V word but “several strong”, wonder what they’re seeing?
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They’re probably straight up ignoring the cams on firing no convection in the warm sector.

With how strong the jet will be across the state and sharpness of the dry line I guess they’re confident enough that the models are out on a loop.
 
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