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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

Jellyroll

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Is that shear supposed to uptrend? It doesn’t look conducive for strong tornadoes.
Yes, to quote Bentley:
Supercells are already starting to develop
in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will
move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally,
a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight
which will elongate low-level hodographs
 

Jellyroll

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Full disclosure, a couple weeks ago I read Meteorological Analyses of the Tri-State Tornado Event of March 1925 (2013). I know the environment is much different but when Leitman followed by Bentley provided strongly worded guidance for this specific area today, it piqued my interest greatly. I was surprised SPC walked back the outlooks so conservatively yesterday afternoon, but as I am not as fly on the wall nor armchair QB, I am confinement they had good reason to do so. The ingredients are most certainly there for a very dynamic situation to unfold well into the evening.
 
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