Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[jiharris0220]

80/80 probs again.

 

[jiharris0220]

Can this be a good threat and just stay dead and Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency without any last minute bulls&*t please, that’d be nice.

 

[Jellyroll]

Is that shear supposed to uptrend? It doesn’t look conducive for strong tornadoes.

Yes, to quote Bentley:
Supercells are already starting to develop
in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will
move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally,
a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight
which will elongate low-level hodographs

 

[Maxis_s]

I see the SPC is a big fan of the number 80.

 

[Tanner]

i dont think this one will be too nice…

Can this be a good threat and just stay dead and Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency without any last minute bulls&*t please, that’d be nice.

 

[hurricaneguy]

If the EF5 drought survives this year it will be a miracle. We have had to dodge some bullets this year.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Yikes, HRRR spitting out supercells ahead of an intense bowing structure now in Western KY and Far Southern Indiana. Big uptrend in this threat. Did not expect any of this this morning.

 

[NorthBamaWX]

right now there are no Tornado Warnings

Just dont think that will hold up

 

[Kds86z]

Ef3 confirmed Marion county,AR from last night. Fatalities associated with I believe.

 

[Jellyroll]

Full disclosure, a couple weeks ago I read Meteorological Analyses of the Tri-State Tornado Event of March 1925 (2013). I know the environment is much different but when Leitman followed by Bentley provided strongly worded guidance for this specific area today, it piqued my interest greatly. I was surprised SPC walked back the outlooks so conservatively yesterday afternoon, but as I am not as fly on the wall nor armchair QB, I am confinement they had good reason to do so. The ingredients are most certainly there for a very dynamic situation to unfold well into the evening.

 

[Maxis_s]

Not a fan of all these power outages.

 

[NorthBamaWX]

View attachment 28086View attachment 28087View attachment 28088
Not a fan of all these power outages.

high winds wet grounds

 

[Liberty4dayz]

Missouri is exploding with convection

 

[Maxis_s]

That's a discrete mode if I've ever seen one.

 

[NorthBamaWX]

a destructive t-storm warning ??

is this something new the NWS is doing now

 

[JPWX]

With 6 PDS watches issued thus far this year, we're tied with 2021 for the highest PDS watch count. We have to back to 2017 to find more than 6 (11 that year).

 

[jiharris0220]

The hrrr showing supercells out ahead of the mcs reminds me a lot of a certain tornado outbreak that happened in Georgia and South Carolina in the April of 2022.

 

[Jellyroll]

I hope it's this map and not the Waffle House Index we'll be view tomorrow, lol.

View attachment 28086View attachment 28087View attachment 28088
Not a fan of all these power outages.

 

[Blizzard1]

View attachment 28089
That's a discrete mode if I've ever seen one.

My goodness! To me that looks like it’s outdoing itself right off and those might get linear sooner but that’s just my gut reaction.

 

[Maxis_s]

a destructive t-storm warning ??

is this something new the NWS is doing now

That's existed for ages. It's basically a PDS t-storm warning. You have normal t-storm warnings, considerable t-storm warnings and destructive t-storm warnings.
Also, more damage from the tornadoes from yesterday via Ryan's stream in Valley View, TX.

Exposed basement, some windrowing present and debris partially swept off foundations. Very, very bad damage.