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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
- Start date
Tanner
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- 770
- Location
- Granville, MA
But it will be for both.
Justin Hindman
Member
Moderate is out
NorthBamaWX
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- 339
- Location
- Athens Alabama
Kolle
Member
- Messages
- 193
- Location
- Huntsville
EF3 damage found in Claremore, OK.
0320 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. TORNADOES, SOME
STRONG TO INTENSE, AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN EVOLVING OVERNIGHT SEVERE
WIND/EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT TONIGHT.
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE WAS A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. AN EML HAS ADVECTED ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERMITTED STRONG HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DESTABILIZED REGION
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDE A VORTICITY RICH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL
MOVE TOWARD THIS VORTICITY RICH AIRMASS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ELONGATE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE 18Z
AND 19Z WOFS SHOW SEVERAL INTENSE, LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS THROUGH
THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASED 0-2KM UH
PROBABILITIES, GIVING MORE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS, SEVERAL
STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SEE MCD #980
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE EVOLVING THREAT IN THIS REGION.
EVENTUALLY, THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
AMID EXTREME INSTABILITY, STRONG SHEAR, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, WILL
LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION, ADDED A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AMID WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR. SEE MCD 982 FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 05/26/2024
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. TORNADOES, SOME
STRONG TO INTENSE, AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN EVOLVING OVERNIGHT SEVERE
WIND/EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT TONIGHT.
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE WAS A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. AN EML HAS ADVECTED ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERMITTED STRONG HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DESTABILIZED REGION
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDE A VORTICITY RICH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL
MOVE TOWARD THIS VORTICITY RICH AIRMASS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ELONGATE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE 18Z
AND 19Z WOFS SHOW SEVERAL INTENSE, LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS THROUGH
THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASED 0-2KM UH
PROBABILITIES, GIVING MORE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS, SEVERAL
STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SEE MCD #980
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE EVOLVING THREAT IN THIS REGION.
EVENTUALLY, THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
AMID EXTREME INSTABILITY, STRONG SHEAR, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, WILL
LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION, ADDED A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AMID WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR. SEE MCD 982 FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 05/26/2024
tennessee storm chaser
Member
CheeselandSkies
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- Messages
- 3,844
- Location
- Madison, WI
19Z HRRR wants a discrete supercell through the southern Chicago metro, in the marginal/sub-2%.
Noticing a couple things with this outlook.
45% hail was added despite not being mentioned in the original MCD.
"Several strong to intense tornadoes" and "several intense, long track supercells" mentioned.
I could see a possible PDS watch being issued, this seems like another high-end threat. Pretty strong wording overall.
45% hail was added despite not being mentioned in the original MCD.
"Several strong to intense tornadoes" and "several intense, long track supercells" mentioned.
I could see a possible PDS watch being issued, this seems like another high-end threat. Pretty strong wording overall.
Kds86z
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- 4,355
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- Greencastle, PA
Interesting how they note a cap set in, setting stage for quite the atmosphere
TornadoFan
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- 5,244
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- Colorado
I uh...did not expect to come back to this.
NorthBamaWX
Member
- Messages
- 339
- Location
- Athens Alabama
Kds86z
Member
- Messages
- 4,355
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
I thought the same! Huge hatched