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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

Didn't 3/31/23 suddenly show a discrete mode on the day of the event on models?
The northern mode on 3/31 had been showing discrete/semi-discrete elements leading up to the event for a while. The thinking was due to prodigal forcing it would congeal into a line quickly. But what happened is cells were able to stay discrete a bit longer and even in a semi-discrete mode were able to drop significant tornados.
 
1716308199084.png
Supercell printer now showing development ahead of the line. Not good.
Line also looks completely discrete now.
1716308300504.png
Today is gonna get ugly.
 
Far from enough confidence to warrant that
Ehh, models are definitely trending towards a much more discrete mode, and recovery is ongoing much earlier/faster than expected. There is lingering uncertainty but I don't think it's impossible to see it.
 
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