Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

[Maxis_s]

Today sort of reminds me of May 22, 2011 to an extent.

In what way?

 

[TornadoFan]

HRRR needs to chill out.

 

[Maxis_s]

HRRR needs to chill out.

Didn't 3/31/23 suddenly show a discrete mode on the day of the event on models?

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Didn't 3/31/23 suddenly show a discrete mode on the day of the event on models?

The northern mode on 3/31 had been showing discrete/semi-discrete elements leading up to the event for a while. The thinking was due to prodigal forcing it would congeal into a line quickly. But what happened is cells were able to stay discrete a bit longer and even in a semi-discrete mode were able to drop significant tornados.

 

[Kds86z]

Today sort of reminds me of May 22, 2011 to an extent.

Why was that linear too?

 

[MMWX]

HRRR needs to chill out.

The supercell printer is using lots of ink today

 

[warneagle]

HRRR needs to chill out.

Haha supercell printer go brrr

 

[Maxis_s]

50/40 tornado watch issued for east NE and west IA. Graphic mentions "a couple strong tornadoes possible".

 

[Maxis_s]

Supercell printer now showing development ahead of the line. Not good.
Line also looks completely discrete now.

Today is gonna get ugly.

 

[rushdude]

I'm afraid of what will happen with the Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks for TX
Edit:
PDS TOR sounding

 

[Tennie]

Haha supercell printer go brrr

HRRR go BRRR!

(Sorry, couldn't resist!)

 

[Maxis_s]

Everyone's waiting to see if we get the pink sharpie any moment now...

 

[cincywx]

Everyone's waiting to see if we get the pink sharpie any moment now...

Far from enough confidence to warrant that

 

[Muwx]

Everyone's waiting to see if we get the pink sharpie any moment now...

I’d be very surprised

 

[Maxis_s]

Far from enough confidence to warrant that

Ehh, models are definitely trending towards a much more discrete mode, and recovery is ongoing much earlier/faster than expected. There is lingering uncertainty but I don't think it's impossible to see it.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Everyone's waiting to see if we get the pink sharpie any moment now...

 

[buckeye05]

View attachment 27350

The most iconic NWS tweet of all time

 

[Maxis_s]

No high risk (expected, I just said it was possible that it could happen) but the wording is still extremely strong. Very surprised they didn't expand the tornado risk further south, however.

 

[Maxis_s]

 

[TornadoFan]

View attachment 27351