Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

[CheeselandSkies]

UH streak across Madison is still there on 0Z run, but now bumped up to 18Z and from the tail end of a QLCS, not a discrete supercell.

HRRR has been all over the place with tomorrow's event since it came into range, not inclined to put too much stock in it at the moment.

 

[TheSuckZone]

UH streak across Madison is still there on 0Z run, but now bumped up to 18Z and from the tail end of a QLCS, not a discrete supercell.

HRRR has been all over the place with tomorrow's event since it came into range, not inclined to put too much stock in it at the moment.

The 48 hr HRRR runs like to go a little nuts sometimes

 

[atrainguy]

Got a PDS severe thunderstorm warning in Iowa.

 

[jiharris0220]

UH streak across Madison is still there on 0Z run, but now bumped up to 18Z and from the tail end of a QLCS, not a discrete supercell.

HRRR has been all over the place with tomorrow's event since it came into range, not inclined to put too much stock in it at the moment.

What’s really strange is that the nam, the king of linear mode initialization, has a more discrete mode than the hrrr, which is known as the supercell printer.

Guess they decided to switch roles for the time being.

 

[Kds86z]

High end tornado watch now..

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

High end tornado watch now..

I would say Moderate. 60% chance for 2 or more tornadoes and a 30% chance of 1 or more EF2-EF5 tornadoes.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tomorrow for several days now has looked to be probably up there with one of our worst outbreaks of the year (ie 4/26). I don’t feel good about this one!

 

[MattPetrulli]

Where have I seen this before....

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Where have I seen this before....
View attachment 27330

Yup, now that the hourly runs have started to get tomorrow afternoon in range, it looks wildly different than the 00Z and prior...no storms anywhere near southern Wisconsin at 18Z and Iowa mostly clear. That cell shown running ahead of the complex in north-central IA at 21Z has my interest if it can stay consistent with that.

 

[Maxis_s]

Well then...

 

[Maxis_s]

View attachment 27331
Well then...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for
strong tornadoes, is probable today, peaking in the afternoon to
early evening. The area most likely to be impacted will include the
Mid to Lower Missouri Valley across the Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley to the Lake Michigan vicinity.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for
strong tornadoes, is probable today, peaking in the afternoon to
early evening. The area most likely to be impacted will include the
Mid to Lower Missouri Valley across the Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley to the Lake Michigan vicinity.

Do you think there will be any long lived supercells that will produce multiple long tracked intense(EF3) to violent(EF4+) tornadoes?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Given continued CAM variability on the potential for discrete supercells; I'm surprised by how aggressive that is especially for a non-Broyles outlook.

 

[buckeye05]

Given continued CAM variability on the potential for discrete supercells; I'm surprised by how aggressive that is especially for a non-Broyles outlook.

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if today is messy in terms of storm mode.

 

[andyhb]

HRRR has been improving in that department in recent runs, mind you.

 

[MattPetrulli]

HRRR has been improving in that department in recent runs, mind you.

06z HRRR is downright nasty

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

06z HRRR is downright nasty
View attachment 27332

Wow, that is a lot of discrete supercells. Is that like late afternoon into late evening?

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

06z HRRR is downright nasty
View attachment 27332

Oh, you gotta be kidding me

 

[notsoencrypted]

Interesting. A Public Severe Weather Outlook.

Wow, that is a lot of discrete supercells. Is that like late afternoon into late evening?

Yeah, the timing is afternoon into evening for the severe stuff, though it sounds like we may have multiple rounds.

 

[Tanner]

I don’t trust a single model this year. I’m still thinking a more discrete mode will be maintained for a longer duration.