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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

Strong wording for the D2.
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Tuesday across the Midwest, especially
including portions of Iowa and Missouri into Wisconsin and
western/northern Illinois. Tornadoes (a few strong), damaging wind
gusts, and large hail are expected.

...Lower/Middle Missouri Valley to the Upper Great Lakes...
A notably strong belt of cyclonically curved westerlies (70+ kt 500
mb) will extend from the south-central Great Plains to the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a lead/convectively
augmented shortwave trough likely to spread from the central High
Plains toward the Lake Superior vicinity late Tuesday night. An
elongated surface low over eastern Nebraska Tuesday morning will
deepen and lift northeast to northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan by
evening, with a surface warm front lifting northward ahead of the
surface low, although its effective position will likely be
influenced by the early day precipitation. Meanwhile, a trailing
cold front will surge east across Iowa/eastern Kansas/northern
Missouri from mid-afternoon into the evening.

Remnant clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning
across central/eastern Nebraska, with the possibility of additional
storms farther east across southern Iowa/northern Missouri in
association with a warm-advection regime. Some key uncertainties
persist about the influences of this early day convection, but
trends will be for quick air mass recovery given a
progressive/highly dynamic pattern.

Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the increasingly
moist warm sector, supporting aggressive diurnal destabilization
especially on the southern fringe of lingering convection/cloud
cover. Significantly strengthening mid-level winds and a diurnally
persistent strong low-level jet will support initial supercells
capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, including strong (EF2+)
tornado potential. But a mixed/transitional mode is expected
overall, as upscale growth occurs given the degree of forcing for
ascent, with likely evolution into a well-organized/fast-moving QLCS
capable of increasingly widespread/intense damaging winds and a
continued QLCS-related tornado risk. This scenario currently appears
to be most probable across southern/eastern Iowa into northwest
Illinois and nearby far northern Missouri. The severe risk will
persist into the Upper Great Lakes region and middle Mississippi
Valley overnight.

...Southern Plains...
Convective coverage will likely decrease with southward extent as
large-scale ascent focuses northward toward the Great Lakes.
Nevertheless isolated storms are possible into northeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by late afternoon/evening, and more
conditionally with southwest extent near a dryline from central
Oklahoma into central Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be
possible with this activity.

...Northeast States...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and
northern New England. This will result in a band of enhanced
westerly deep-layer flow from northern New York into Maine. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints
into the low 60s F, with strong heating and steepening low-level
lapse rates. MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg and effective shear
magnitudes around 35 kt will support organized cells. Elongated
hodographs and favorable vertical shear suggest marginally severe
hail will be possible along with locally damaging wind gusts.

..Guyer.. 05/20/2024
Click to expand...
 
Timelapse footage from last night's Union City tornado, showing it visibly detach from the parent thunderstorm shortly before dissipating. Deviant motion at its finest.
 
@CheeselandSkies I didn't see this 1 till after I signed after my laptop last night but this was for the Salina, KS Severe Thunderstorm Warning. I can imagine many people not paying attention to the details, blowing this off thinking "well its not a tornado" & really regretting their decision.

613 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Eastern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 645 PM CDT.

* At 612 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Niles to near New Cambria to Assaria, moving
east at 30 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR EASTERN SALINE COUNTY

HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to
homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and
power outages.
 
Tornadic supercell ongoing in SE Minnesota as well as storms in Michigan.
1716249949588.png
 
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