Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

The trend I have noticed in all the models is for the morning convection to occur further north and west than the previous runs. Everything is slowing down a bit which puts almost all of AL under the gun for the afternoon tomorrow. I would expect in a half hour that the MDT risk is pulled west some, I wouldn't go High yet because there is still uncertainty as to how strong the morning convection is and how quickly things destabilize, though I do think if the models hold their 12z projections that a High risk will be forthcoming for this event for most of central and eastern AL and into western GA.
 
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Also not downplaying the morning stuff either, that could very well be tornadic as that convection will occur in a highly sheared and moist unstable environment.
 
Both WRFs on UH.

EDIT: Disclaimer. Take these images as the spirit of the law, not the letter. Do not concentrate on the exact location but general area. Just for those who are new.

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ARCC said:
The new WRFs

The ARW tempers the threat a little from 0z. Still serious but it wants to keep cape down. With lots of convection except for Central GA which gets nailed.

The NMM on the other hand goes absolutely bonkers. Backs wind direction at both the surface and 850mb ahead of the dry line and blows up several very long track supercells from west AL/central TN and marches them east. Is it wrong to say that we should use this model because it puts a very strong/long track supercell over the F5 capital of the world?
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When I looked over the WRFs on Pivotal Weather last night I had that disconcerting sick feeling that I've only experienced a few times before. If you are telling me the NMM is even more explosive (at least mitigated a bit by the ARW), then I'm not even sure I want to see it.

I've been expecting a westward movement for storm initialization as haven't been as keen on things starting to the East. History tells us that these April events almost always start to the west of what the SPC forecasted in their day 2.

April 8th/9th has been on my mind from early on. Decent amount of similarity thus far.
 
stebo said:
The trend I have noticed in all the models is for the morning convection to occur further north and west than the previous runs. Everything is slowing down a bit which puts almost all of AL under the gun for the afternoon tomorrow. I would expect in a half hour that the MDT risk is pulled west some, I wouldn't go High yet because there is still uncertainty as to how strong the morning convection is and how quickly things destabilize, though I do think if the models hold their 12z projections that a high will be forthcoming for this event for most of central and eastern AL and into western GA.
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Agree 100%
 
Evan said:
When I looked over the WRFs on Pivotal Weather last night I had that disconcerting sick feeling that I've only experienced a few times before. If you are telling me the NMM is even more explosive (at least mitigated a bit by the ARW), then I'm not even sure I want to see it.

I've been expecting a westward movement for storm initialization as haven't been as keen on things starting to the East. History tells us that these April events almost always start to the west of what the SPC forecasted in their day 2.

April 8th/9th has been on my mind from early on. Decent amount of similarity thus far.
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The NMM is absolutely ridiculous. Would easily verify a high risk verbatim. The mitigated ARW is a very viable option but would still be a sig threat.
 
ARCC said:
Both WRFs on UH.

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Move the Central AL stuff a bit to the NW and I think that is a very plausible solution. How ever unfortunate that may be.
 
I hope someone is saving screenshots of the parameters tomorrow because some of them look like the kind of things you'd see in textbooks. Pretty scary stuff
 
Mr Jacks do you see them moving this north at all into the TN valley as well?
 
Lol yeah, I can picture the whole of the SPC sweating and debating back and forth another half hour or more given the stakes tomorrow.
 
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