cincywx
Member
looks to me like those n TX cells are fixing to stay linear
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I remember the early 90's in Kansas were a lot of discrete supercells and big time hailers. It seems more often than not now a lot of events turn into big time HP clusters. We also have a lot more nocturnal events. Just kind of crazy how things have changed over time.Admittedly I’m fuzzy on 1980s Oklahoma tornados but could just be cyclical periods and right now we are in a calm one for Oklahoma?
The 90s fooled us into thinking those are supposed to be a lot more frequent than they really are because that period of time is what many of us have lived through to experience firsthand instead of relying on historical accounts of things. Looking at long long term tornado history tells a different story. There are cyclical periods of big violent activity as well as quiet and less intense periods in the Plains. The same is said for Dixie Alley, the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, etc.Big truly violent and historic plains tornado outbreaks the likes of the big ones of the 1990’s and 2011 are on hiatus for now…
What happened?
I’m talking about the actual top tier outbreaks…for what it was…yesterday’s outbreak was still far from what you would class as “historic”…no where near the likes of…And then there's the fact that we just had one in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday. LOL
They're top-tier outbreaks for a reason. Because they don't happen frequently in the long-term scheme of things. Again, the frequency that they happened in the 90s is not normal outside of occasionally happening as part of a long-term cyclical pattern, when looking at long-term tornado history. The same as when Dixie has top-tier outbreaks or the Ohio Valley has something similar to 1965, etc.
I’m talking about the actual top tier outbreaks…for what it was…yesterday’s outbreak was still far from what you would class as “historic”…no where near the likes of…
March 13 1990
April 26 1991
May 3rd 1999
May 24 2011
Ya know…those kind’s of outbreaks
Where actual extremely violent damage was done…
The last tornado to produce objectively violent damage in the plains was matador…and that was one fluke tornado on an otherwise middling day…
It seems like top tier set-ups just don’t do anything notable in the classic plains way anymore…
All of this.And then there's the fact that we just had one in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday. LOL
Great points Fred.I will say though, that if we go too many more years without somewhere in the United States having those kind of violent swarm outbreaks, then we will have to consider something else at work other than larger natural cyclical variation. But based on previous tornado outbreak history in the United States, we're too soon removed from our previous historic violent day to try to draw any assumptions just yet. Since the mid 1800s, the U.S, typically averages a 5/4/2003 or 2/5/2008 type violent day (five or more EF4+ rated tornadoes in a day from a single synoptic system) once every 9-13 years. There have been occasional periods where they have happened more frequently (2003-2008-2011 for example), but never beyond 13 years, not since the mid/late 1800s at least. If we continue to avoid days of that caliber for another few/several years, we'll have to start to consider things outside of cyclical patterns.
There is some apples to oranges comparison because of older tornadoes being retroactively rated the way they were, but I feel at least some of that balances out with there being more targets to hit as areas have spread out in development over the years. The fact that we still weren't breaking that "return rate" all the way back into the 1800s despite many areas that are suburban today being nothing but farmland or wooded areas back then should say a lot.Great points Fred.
Do you think it’s kind of an apples to oranges deal historically with the EF scale vs original Fujita scale and of course the sort of subjective EF application?