00z Icon (German model) shows the type of potential the Saturday trough has if it develops properly. High end solution for KS/OK.
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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)
- Thread starter andyhb
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lake.effect
Member
00Z GFS was just ballistic.
I was able to find multiple PDS TOR soundings across at least 5 states on 3 separate days. Even one in the south Chicago metro.
Buckle up.
- Thread starter
- #3
...and now both the GFS and CMC show impressive solutions in the S Plains on Saturday. The way that second jet max slides ESE into the West Coast makes me nervous, especially since that lead wave Thurs/Fri clears out the influence of the sub-tropical jet.
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- #4
A new look for Saturday on the models today. I expect it will change again potentially towards a less significant look based on EURO control and EURO AI guidance.
- Thread starter
- #5
18z GFS is big trouble in OK and probably N TX on Saturday.
warneagle
Member
Big shift from the 12z run which was showing that massive parameter space down there but with some capping issues.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Always fun seeing SARS pop a few 00z 4/4/74 analogs in selected locations across the area.
lake.effect
Member
I think Saturday has the highest ceiling and, if model trends continue, could possibly justify a high risk.
The machine learning models agree. CSU-MLP maxes out the scale. Look at the huge swath of land under high probability significant weather:
The machine learning models agree. CSU-MLP maxes out the scale. Look at the huge swath of land under high probability significant weather:
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tennessee storm chaser
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Agree. Models continue trend , Saturday will be a high risk category ….
CheeselandSkies
Member
Holy 
the 12Z NAM for Saturday. TOR to PDS TOR soundings (legit looking ones too, not ones with weird VBV wind profiles or no 3CAPE) from right over my house in southern WI, to northern Kansas, and all down the dryline into OK. Some of that is likely overdone; but even so I haven't seen a run like that in a long time.
the 12Z NAM for Saturday. TOR to PDS TOR soundings (legit looking ones too, not ones with weird VBV wind profiles or no 3CAPE) from right over my house in southern WI, to northern Kansas, and all down the dryline into OK. Some of that is likely overdone; but even so I haven't seen a run like that in a long time.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Saturday has a legit ceiling. One wrench could be early day crapvection/rain, but will have to see how the models play that as we get closer.Holy
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
There is some hyperbole by that tweeter. And it is the unreliable NAM at 72* hours out.
The thing that really jumps out at me are the analogs. 4/27/91 OUN, aka Andover/Red Rock - THE signature plains outbreak outside of 5/24/11.
A 4/3/74 sounding. The analogs you usually see from 4/3/74 that pop up on soundings are from MGM (Montgomery, Alabama) outside of all the chaos that day. But this one is matching to Nashville, Tennessee(BNA). Tennessee was squarely in the action during the super outbreak.
I just have a really hard time seeing this event right now even coming close to those days and think the NAM may be a little off the mark here.
TheSuckZone
Member
Yeah, we'll see. Every week on YouTube now there are videos all over with "THE STORM OF THE CENTURY IS COMING!". It has gotten pretty out of hand.
JPWX
Member
That's hilarious and at the same dangerous. But hype equals more views
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Seems to be even worse on Twitter. Cherry picking individual model runs and soundings.
At this point I’m just Trying to see if there is a cap on any of the soundings from earlier in the day to keep any crapvection from going up.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Add 5/3/99 to that list as well.
tennessee storm chaser
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No doubt. Saturday stands a better than equal chance of being a high risk day regardless if its not the storm of the century .
lake.effect
Member
Not to cherry pick soundings (soundings are just guesses after all), but 18z NAM has the most extreme soundings for tornadoes I have ever seen on that model. Off the charts.
Really more eye candy than anything since I do not expect those will verify.
Really more eye candy than anything since I do not expect those will verify.
jiharris0220
Member
Seriously though, those soundings between 78-84hrs are by far the most favorable I’ve seen this year so far from the Nam.
I don’t doubt the kinematics being that volatile, but CIN is still a big limiting factor.
