Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[cincywx]

looks to me like those n TX cells are fixing to stay linear

 

[TheSuckZone]

Admittedly I’m fuzzy on 1980s Oklahoma tornados but could just be cyclical periods and right now we are in a calm one for Oklahoma?

I remember the early 90's in Kansas were a lot of discrete supercells and big time hailers. It seems more often than not now a lot of events turn into big time HP clusters. We also have a lot more nocturnal events. Just kind of crazy how things have changed over time.

 

[tornado examiner]

Big truly violent and historic plains tornado outbreaks the likes of the big ones of the 1990’s and 2011 are on hiatus for now…
What happened?

 

[Fred Gossage]

Big truly violent and historic plains tornado outbreaks the likes of the big ones of the 1990’s and 2011 are on hiatus for now…
What happened?

The 90s fooled us into thinking those are supposed to be a lot more frequent than they really are because that period of time is what many of us have lived through to experience firsthand instead of relying on historical accounts of things. Looking at long long term tornado history tells a different story. There are cyclical periods of big violent activity as well as quiet and less intense periods in the Plains. The same is said for Dixie Alley, the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, etc.

 

[Fred Gossage]

And then there's the fact that we just had one in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday. LOL

 

[Fred Gossage]

 

[jiharris0220]

What the hell am I reading right now?

 

[tornado examiner]

And then there's the fact that we just had one in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday. LOL

I’m talking about the actual top tier outbreaks…for what it was…yesterday’s outbreak was still far from what you would class as “historic”…no where near the likes of…

March 13 1990
April 26 1991
May 3rd 1999
May 24 2011

Ya know…those kind’s of outbreaks
Where actual extremely violent damage was done…
The last tornado to produce objectively violent damage in the plains was matador…and that was one fluke tornado on an otherwise middling day…

It seems like top tier set-ups just don’t do anything notable in the classic plains way anymore…

 

[tornado examiner]

Which is a great thing…but like…still..where’d they go…and when will they come back to shut me up?

 

[Fred Gossage]

They're top-tier outbreaks for a reason. Because they don't happen frequently in the long-term scheme of things. Again, the frequency that they happened in the 90s is not normal outside of occasionally happening as part of a long-term cyclical pattern, when looking at long-term tornado history. The same as when Dixie has top-tier outbreaks or the Ohio Valley has something similar to 1965, etc.

 

[Austin Dawg]

They're top-tier outbreaks for a reason. Because they don't happen frequently in the long-term scheme of things. Again, the frequency that they happened in the 90s is not normal outside of occasionally happening as part of a long-term cyclical pattern, when looking at long-term tornado history. The same as when Dixie has top-tier outbreaks or the Ohio Valley has something similar to 1965, etc.

How many people can let this go right over their head to find some other explanation.

 

[cincywx]

I’m talking about the actual top tier outbreaks…for what it was…yesterday’s outbreak was still far from what you would class as “historic”…no where near the likes of…

March 13 1990
April 26 1991
May 3rd 1999
May 24 2011

Ya know…those kind’s of outbreaks
Where actual extremely violent damage was done…
The last tornado to produce objectively violent damage in the plains was matador…and that was one fluke tornado on an otherwise middling day…

It seems like top tier set-ups just don’t do anything notable in the classic plains way anymore…

those outbreaks are anomalies though. outbreaks of that intensity will continue to occur as time goes on, but they're statistically rare to begin with. their "clustered" recurrence in the 90s is also unique in its own right.

 

[Clancy]

And then there's the fact that we just had one in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday. LOL

All of this.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I will say though, that if we go too many more years without somewhere in the United States having those kind of violent swarm outbreaks, then we will have to consider something else at work other than larger natural cyclical variation. But based on previous tornado outbreak history in the United States, we're too soon removed from our previous historic violent day to try to draw any assumptions just yet. Since the mid 1800s, the U.S, typically averages a 5/4/2003 or 2/5/2008 type violent day (five or more EF4+ rated tornadoes in a day from a single synoptic system) once every 9-13 years. There have been occasional periods where they have happened more frequently (2003-2008-2011 for example), but never beyond 13 years, not since the mid/late 1800s at least. If we continue to avoid days of that caliber for another few/several years, we'll have to start to consider things outside of cyclical patterns.

 

[JPWX]

Supercell storm Burkburnett, OK has BTI of 8.9!

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I will say though, that if we go too many more years without somewhere in the United States having those kind of violent swarm outbreaks, then we will have to consider something else at work other than larger natural cyclical variation. But based on previous tornado outbreak history in the United States, we're too soon removed from our previous historic violent day to try to draw any assumptions just yet. Since the mid 1800s, the U.S, typically averages a 5/4/2003 or 2/5/2008 type violent day (five or more EF4+ rated tornadoes in a day from a single synoptic system) once every 9-13 years. There have been occasional periods where they have happened more frequently (2003-2008-2011 for example), but never beyond 13 years, not since the mid/late 1800s at least. If we continue to avoid days of that caliber for another few/several years, we'll have to start to consider things outside of cyclical patterns.

Great points Fred.

Do you think it’s kind of an apples to oranges deal historically with the EF scale vs original Fujita scale and of course the sort of subjective EF application?

 

[Fred Gossage]

Great points Fred.

Do you think it’s kind of an apples to oranges deal historically with the EF scale vs original Fujita scale and of course the sort of subjective EF application?

There is some apples to oranges comparison because of older tornadoes being retroactively rated the way they were, but I feel at least some of that balances out with there being more targets to hit as areas have spread out in development over the years. The fact that we still weren't breaking that "return rate" all the way back into the 1800s despite many areas that are suburban today being nothing but farmland or wooded areas back then should say a lot.

 

[Clancy]

This supercell continues to exhibit tornadic potential, and is heading in the general direction of OKC.

 

[JBishopwx]

T.0.G crossing the red river

 

[JBishopwx]