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Xenesthis
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The ensemble member spread is still quite large. Several differences among them in SCP, timing, and area.
Ok I understand there will be quite a bit of spread! Which area seems to have the most confidence at this moment
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The ensemble member spread is still quite large. Several differences among them in SCP, timing, and area.
Astronomical forecasting sounding off the 00Z NAM across N. MS 00Z SAT. Parameters as follows:
Near Oxford, MS.
LI - 8.2
LCL 914
SWEATS 514
CAPE 4192
CAP 1.1
Helicity 421
EHI 11.2
BRN 33.3
Now, just where would be the kicker to ignite all this? I can't find it yet. The CAP is not that strong, so......
Forecast soundings are rather concerning with 0-6km shear
of 50-65kt and clockwise-curved hodographs yielding 0-1km SRH in
excess of 300 m2/s2. This type of environment will certainly
support a damaging wind and large hail threat, but the tornado
threat will depend on how much of the aforementioned instability
becomes surface-based. Hi-res guidance indicates the potential for
at least a couple of robust surface-based supercells, and a
strong tornado cannot be ruled out if this occurs. The threat
should begin around midnight in the West and continue through 9 AM
Thursday in the East.
Even if you look back to this year's late Feb event from the Ohio Valley with the only EF4 of the year and multiple long trackers, that was a 15% hatched. And it verified nicely.Regarding the SPC, just look at 4/15/2011. Stuck with a 15% tornado prob with hatch all day long. I believe it is safe to say these two setups are not that similar. I know it is 6 years ago and a random selection of an Outlook, but I think it is a bit more evidence we're seeing a different approach from the SPC.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110415_1630.html
The wind profile today is once again, simply not going to cut it for a favorable storm mode or vigorous tornado activity. This was looking linear well in advance, so seeing a 15% hatched tornado driven moderate was very surprising. What isn't surprising is watching everything go linear with no sign of discrete activity. I do not understand why the SPC is being so bullish with tornado probs this year with setups that clearly seem to favor a sloppy/linear mode. It's kind of ridiculous.SPC is kinda backing off in their own special way on the strong tornado threat in the latest MD. The way they talk about the parameters makes me wonder why they were so bullish in the first place.
Sounds like we have the same train of thought...South Central MS and AL....do not ignore tonight and tomorrow morning's potential. Today never looked linear, given the upper level flow is SSW (parallel to the boundary). That shortwave will lift NE tonight and permit a more SW/WSW flow over the narrow warm sector and will permit the QLCS to break up into cells. Some of the shear values are eye opening for overnight....