• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

The NAM is nosing some better dynamics into the Southern half of MS and AL for Wednesday into Thursday (4/26-4/27). Similar in trough evolution on the GFS. Questions of unidirectional flow above 850mb, rather narrow warm sector, and low level response comes to mind. A lot to be worked out....
 
The friday sounding, especially the STP and EHI, are reminiscent of 4/14/12; the last 45% Tor contour issued by the SPC and a day that had multiple rounds of long-track, violent supercells producing strong tornadoes, especially after dark.
 
Yeah, wow, the main threat for Friday on the 12z GFS is way south and east of the area in the SPC outlook.
 
warneagle said:
Yeah, wow, the main threat for Friday on the 12z GFS is way south and east of the area in the SPC outlook.
Click to expand...
As is the Euro, which doesn't depict nearly the environment it was once showing. Trough and associated dynamics begin to amplify a bit too much and become disjointed. Still would have a severe threat, just nothing like what was once shown...verbatim of course.
 
For now, I find Wed night/Thursday as the most intriguing and consistent of the period so far. Shows a destabilizing warm sector northward to near I-20/59 as the main jet moves overhead with convection. The main limiting factor will likely be how far north we can actually get the warm sector....with the Euro/NAM being the most aggressive with northward progression.
 
Models seem to be trending away from a higher end event. More high amplitude set up favors heavy rain threat more so than a widespread severe wx event. Will still have severe wx but I think the widespread and intense nature seems to be backing off.

In other news, watch out with the PWATS nearing 4 standard deviations above normal. Heavy rain might be the biggest take away....
 
Kory said:
Models seem to be trending away from a higher end event. More high amplitude set up favors heavy rain threat more so than a widespread severe wx event. Will still have severe wx but I think the widespread and intense nature seems to be backing off.

In other news, watch out with the PWATS nearing 4 standard deviations above normal. Heavy rain might be the biggest take away....
Click to expand...

So are you referring to the day 4 threat or the entire event Through the weekend?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top