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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

For Sunday they keep moving the slight risk area to the east. What are your thoughts about the SPC moving it further east and upgrading a portion of the outlook to Enhanced?
 
I think there is still too much uncertainty right now to change an outlook. NAM may be overdoing instability, GFS may be underplaying...also surface low is quite elongated...I think that is what is leadling to the low level directional shear/critical angle...not sure that is right...but will need to be watched.
 
Richardjacks said:
I think there is still too much uncertainty right now to change an outlook. NAM may be overdoing instability, GFS may be underplaying...also surface low is quite elongated...I think that is what is leadling to the low level directional shear/critical angle...not sure that is right...but will need to be watched.
Click to expand...

Any idea of output for critical angle at the moment? I am curious as to what the models are currently showing.
 
buckeye05 said:
Pivitolweather.com
It's free, and you won't have to rely on other members to relay the model output to you every time there is a threat.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the website thank you... just have to figure out how to navigate it lol
 
Better SW flow at 500mb on the NAM. Overall, the trough looks more favorable for not a fully linear system, but will primarily be linear. That trough orientation gets better lapse rates. But this wouldn't be a threat where we get supercells all across the warm sector. It would likely be a few renegade cells that can get going ahead of a large QLCS.

GFS has a large MCS. Overall, the potential of a large damaging wind event is there given some of the low level shear...
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Tornado warning near Troy, AL.
Also plenty of others storms that could kick off a warning too.
Click to expand...

Another Tornado Warning this one in GA near Columbus and Phenix City
 
We are probably gonna wind up with far more tornado warnings and reports today than yesterday. SPC has not exactly been spot-on, lol.
 
Strong signature between Talbotton and Junction City, GA. Thankfully that's a very sparsely populated area, but starting to get too close to home for comfort.

Edit: TDS.
 
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