• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

New Mesoscale Discussion for Tornado Watch 45:

"DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence
band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these
supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the
maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and
these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear
and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into
peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to
violent tornadoes.

Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St.
Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in
Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are
near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity
sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6.
In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was
launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability
downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest
potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours."
 

Attachments

  • GmGLg8NbcAI1myg.jpeg
    GmGLg8NbcAI1myg.jpeg
    278.9 KB · Views: 0
US_Highway15 said:
New Mesoscale Discussion for Tornado Watch 45:

"DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence
band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these
supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the
maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and
these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear
and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into
peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to
violent tornadoes.

Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St.
Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in
Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are
near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity
sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6.
In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was
launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability
downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest
potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours."
Click to expand...
Bentley and the violent word..
 
I'm not buying into the sentiment in here that things are looking better. This initial line was always supposed to happen. It's sucking up CAPE from the gulf and leaving it in its trail. super cells start popping up in that. It's a self fueling process and each line of storms will be more powerful than the last.

Think of this outbreak in waves. We're in the first wave. The second wave will be worse. And the third wave will be worse than that.
 
Some of y'all should really read up on the posting guidelines.

4. "It is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" policy (updated 24MAR21)
Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency posts during severe weather events will not be tolerated. Just because it is sunny and clear at your house, doesn't mean other members aren't under the gun. Be respectful before you go into an active severe weather thread and declare a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. This is the type of discussion we expect in post-storm analysis. Furthermore, disrespectful Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency posts that specifically call out someone who made a prediction that didn't pan out are highly discouraged. Science is hard, things change and Mother Nature doesn't like us knowing her intentions.
 
MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
Some of y'all should really read up on the posting guidelines.

4. "It is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" policy (updated 24MAR21)
Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency posts during severe weather events will not be tolerated. Just because it is sunny and clear at your house, doesn't mean other members aren't under the gun. Be respectful before you go into an active severe weather thread and declare a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. This is the type of discussion we expect in post-storm analysis. Furthermore, disrespectful Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency posts that specifically call out someone who made a prediction that didn't pan out are highly discouraged. Science is hard, things change and Mother Nature doesn't like us knowing her intentions.
Click to expand...
rule 4 conveniently ignores rule 27 chapter 3 subsection 1 paragraph 5 which says “thou shalt always have present those who will call an event a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before the event even begins.”
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top