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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

I find it interesting they pulled the 30% SIG hatch for damaging winds back into Tennessee instead of expanding that. Definitely not liking the expansion of the 15% SIG TOR hatch
 
Spann highlighting the importance of messaging. At the end of the day, hardly anyone pays attention to the weather, let alone the SPC. In times of are heavy reliance on social media, despite its downsides, is the only real way to spread the word in any significant way.

Honestly I’m glad we have people like Ryan Hall that have a large audience and can relay this information to millions of people.
 
vemir said:
Is it possible that smoke emitting from the wildfires could mitigate the threat and act as a cap?
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There were massive Mexican fires during 4/27/11. I would refer to Fred’s post yesterday on the EML plume source region as well when this topic was brought up.

Again, 5/20/19 had other problems along with the wildfires. I’m sure the SPC and weather enterprise are taking that into account when assessing today’s and tomorrow’s risks.
 
AJS said:
135 pages before the main event event starts.
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This might sound abrasive and I'm not directing this at anyone in particular, but the clutter in this thread is why I don't put much effort into posting here.

I feel it's a waste of time for me to write a detailed scientific analysis only for it to get lost in the shuffle within a few minutes. It's exhausting to shift through page after page to find a nugget here and there.

I'd rather have a professional thread separate from the banter thread.
 
Matt Grantham said:
This might sound abrasive and I'm not directing this at anyone in particular, but the clutter in this thread is why I don't put much effort into posting here.

I feel it's a waste of time for me to write a detailed scientific analysis only for it to get lost in the shuffle within a few minutes. It's exhausting to shift through page after page to find a nugget here and there.

I'd rather have a professional thread separate from the banter thread.
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I agree with this sentiment, it’s admittedly frustrating when trying to type a long form comment and then pressing post only to find that it’s already 2 pages back in the span of 10minutes.
 
Matt Grantham said:
This might sound abrasive and I'm not directing this at anyone in particular, but the clutter in this thread is why I don't put much effort into posting here.

I feel it's a waste of time for me to write a detailed scientific analysis only for it to get lost in the shuffle within a few minutes. It's exhausting to shift through page after page to find a nugget here and there.

I'd rather have a professional thread separate from the banter thread.
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This gives me an idea..........
 
Matt Grantham said:
This might sound abrasive and I'm not directing this at anyone in particular, but the clutter in this thread is why I don't put much effort into posting here.

I feel it's a waste of time for me to write a detailed scientific analysis only for it to get lost in the shuffle within a few minutes. It's exhausting to shift through page after page to find a nugget here and there.

I'd rather have a professional thread separate from the banter thread.
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The back-and-forth banter would be better suited for something like a Discord chat, honestly. Would keep the clutter out of the threads.
 
Matt Grantham said:
This might sound abrasive and I'm not directing this at anyone in particular, but the clutter in this thread is why I don't put much effort into posting here.

I feel it's a waste of time for me to write a detailed scientific analysis only for it to get lost in the shuffle within a few minutes. It's exhausting to shift through page after page to find a nugget here and there.

I'd rather have a professional thread separate from the banter thread.
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I agree. I’m not a professional meteorologist, but I’d say I’m a serviceable severe wx forecaster. I don’t want to limit anyone’s ability to post, but it’s hard to discuss at a high level when the thread starts to resemble a Discord server.
 
This thread is flying like I've never seen before prior to an event.

joshoctober16 said:
if you calculate this to VTP it would be at 42.313
and the new (Tornadic Tilting and Stretching parameter (TTS)) would be at 12.384 , only 2 events had TTS higher then that and it was May 20 2019 at 3.89-18.64 and april 27 2011 at 7.14-20.2
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Bit of an aside, but is anyone generating, or has generated, forecasts (and hindcasts for prior events) of VTP and other STP alternatives that are representative of events over an area? That forecast sounding, for example, is a bit contaminated and perhaps not representative.

The original paper that defined VTP used actual soundings and produced a 90th percentile value of VTP = 10.1 (and STP = 7.1). This event clearly has historic potential, but I'm not sure a VTP of 42 from one point helps one gauge how it compares to other events (like, say 27/4/11 overall on the high end or Easter 2020 and 31/3/23 for less extreme, but still extreme events). The alternative is that I'm getting hold of the wrong end of the stick and VTP just has a really long upper tail.
 
Of particular concern for the St. Louis area. Not only is this coming through on a Friday night, but it's also their area code day (314 day). Hopefully anyone planning events there is aware of the significant threat of severe weather.
 
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