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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Interesting set of outcomes here with the hrrr vs NAM, at this point, they practically have the same setup now.

An area of showers and thunderstorms develop in the morning and rapidly push north, practically doing nothing to halt the tornado threat.

The difference comes in regarding the strength of the EML, the hrrr has a weaker EML and convects the confluence bands straight through it. Meanwhile the NAM has a much stouter EML and nothing is able to break through.
1741952367191.png1741952577156.png
1741952621462.png1741952701127.png
Curiously enough, the NAM also has far stronger shear than the hrrr does, and slightly lower cape, so both of those factors combined it’s no surprise the NAM fails to convect anything in the OWS.

Unfortunately, the hrrr is more believable in this case as instability with these setups often trend upward, and the LLJ usually takes just a bit longer to get going. (Hrrr also has the better vertical wind profiles, particularly in the PBL)
 
a other thing i want to bring up is for today
1741953662304.png
the Fire risk is at the highest risk possible at a very wide area , Remember the california fires? well that was by a very tiny Extreme risk , but this time there is a Iso DryT

now if some one can correct me on this but... has any one ever seen a Dry thunderstorm risk that far east? and if so was there a extreme risk the same time?
1741953929621.png
pretty much all West of the ENH risk is the Extreme fire risk
 
joshoctober16 said:
a other thing i want to bring up is for today
View attachment 35446
the Fire risk is at the highest risk possible at a very wide area , Remember the california fires? well that was by a very tiny Extreme risk , but this time there is a Iso DryT

now if some one can correct me on this but... has any one ever seen a Dry thunderstorm risk that far east? and if so was there a extreme risk the same time?
View attachment 35447
pretty much all West of the ENH risk is the Extreme fire risk
Click to expand...
i quickly went to check if there were any Extreme citical risk east of oklahoma before or if there were any Extreme critical with iso DryT
all i could find is this.
1741954577150.png
1741954591152.png
1741954438225.png
1741954484333.png

Only 2 Iso DryT with Extreme Fire risk
and only 2 that reached East of the Oklahoma State line
and zero of both the same time.

so this is the first Extreme Fire Critical risk + Iso DryT that has ever happened East of the (Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas/Nebraska) State line

this brings up the fact that will this effect the whole outbreak like May 20 2019 Smoke did?
 
joshoctober16 said:
i quickly went to check if there were any Extreme citical risk east of oklahoma before or if there were any Extreme critical with iso DryT
all i could find is this.
View attachment 35450
View attachment 35451
View attachment 35448
View attachment 35449

Only 2 Iso DryT with Extreme Fire risk
and only 2 that reached East of the Oklahoma State line
and zero of both the same time.

so this is the first Extreme Fire Critical risk + Iso DryT that has ever happened East of the (Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas/Nebraska) State line

this brings up the fact that will this effect the whole outbreak like May 20 2019 Smoke did?
Click to expand...

12-15-21 We dealt with a large amount of fires here
 
Your seeing pockets of STP at 8 and 9 now on the RAP. So even the RAP is up ticking as we get closer for Saturday . 12z hrrr should be coming out in about a hour or two
 
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