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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

KevinH said:
You saying this reminds me of what I think happened on 4-27-2011. Wasn’t there a “morning round” that day too?
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There was - a belt of convection, which itself produced some tornadoes, moved across the northern third of Alabama into the early afternoon hours. This situation will be quite different compared to 4/27 - it's anything but a direct comparison, but at the most basic level, yes.
 
KevinH said:
You saying this reminds me of what I think happened on 4-27-2011. Wasn’t there a “morning round” that day too?

I remember Spann saying “watch what happens in the MORNING”. Why am I having all of these flashbacks about these videos for an event I wasn’t even here for (I moved to GA in late 2011).

Sigh
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Yes there was a morning round. You have flashbacks due to the severity of that specific event.
 
Clancy said:
There was - a belt of convection, which itself produced some tornadoes, moved across the northern third of Alabama into the early afternoon hours. This situation will be quite different compared to 4/27 - it's anything but a direct comparison, but at the most basic level, yes.
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I agree with this assessment. Nothing like 4/27 but it does have some small details in common like that morning round. All that would do is enhance the afternoon action.
 
Bulkshear said:
I agree with this assessment. Nothing like 4/27 but it does have some small details in common like that morning round. All that would do is enhance the afternoon action.
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That enhancement is what I seem to remember Spann talking about. I thought Spann was saying something similar about THAT day.
 
KevinH said:
That enhancement is what I seem to remember Spann talking about. I thought Spann was saying something similar about THAT day.
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He did. I personally expect several tornadoes if we get the development of that second low pressure. From what I am currently seeing on the models this situation really reminds me of April 1998. So basically I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two supercells really take off and drop something big.
 
Bulkshear said:
He did. I personally expect several tornadoes if we get the development of that second low pressure. From what I am currently seeing on the models this situation really reminds me of April 1998. So basically I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two supercells really take off and drop something big.
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When I looked at CIPS analogs earlier, the top one was 4/17/98 00z. But sneakily in there was 3/27/94 12z and additional tornado producing days in N/C GA. Always entertaining to look at regardless.
 
00Z GFS 1) keeps kinematics fairly robust throughout the day, and 2) kicks in that LLJ earlier than the 18Z. If that trend holds, it would have me even more worried.
1741666165782.png1741666172591.png
 
00z GFS is trouble, big trouble on Saturday for MS/AL.

Large warm sector with plenty of instability and shear overlapping, a relatively diffuse wave to encourage discrete convection, and the subtropical jet remains off the coast which reduces its influence.
 
Daylight chase potential in the Midwest on Friday is still a lot less of a certainty than I'd like, but I'd watch out for some shenanigans possibly overnight Friday-Saturday in the mid-South to Ohio Valley. Instability is minimal, but forecast hodographs become rather monstrous over parts of the area with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Remember the night of March 2-3, 2020?
 
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