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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

If we're taking the lower-level wind fields modelled by the globals (using 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS here for examples) at face value for the last few runs, something that concerns me is the potential multi-round severe convection and, particularly, the placement and timing of those rounds. Currently, they have leftover convection in the form of a potentially broken QLCS moving through during the morning into midday hours. Interestingly, they do hold instability across much of the Southeast even during the early morning hours, and that instability field expands substantially as daylight comes. As these storms move northeastward, they will take the kinematic energy of the parent low with it, leaving a small period in the afternoon with relatively meager kinematics but substantial instability. Models aren't creating a whole lot of disorganized clutter, at least not enough to nullify destabilization. As evening approaches and sunset nears, an intense LLJ driven by the developing secondary low pressure causes an explosive intensification in wind fields, concurrent with rising convection across MS and western AL, which will propagate northeastward with time. Some of the model runs have depicted the morning activity lifting gradually out of the Deep South and forming a boundary which additional storms may take advantage of later in the day. While isolated storms that form during the peak of the afternoon hours might not have much in the way of kinematics to work with, they would still pose a severe threat, and any leftover boundaries could locally enhance the tornado threat. But where I'm really concerned is how everything plays out come evening. With such an intense LLJ and plenty of moisture across the core of the Southeast, you've got all the ingredients together for a particularly dangerous nocturnal tornado event across much of Alabama and Georgia. Decreasing instability vis-a-vis diurnal heating may temper convective intensity somewhat, but globals still depict instability of at least 250-500 j/kg across even North-Central Georgia well into the night. Will need to see what changes as the days go by, and mesoscale interactions will likely have a substantial influence, especially on afternoon activity, but in any case the ingredients are there for what may be a really rough night for Alabamians and Georgians, including Georgia folks who might not be used to such intense severe storms. Point being, AL and GA folks need to watch this very closely in the coming days.
1741659687366.png1741659697432.png1741659737787.png1741659746622.png1741659871269.png1741659876015.png
 
Jason Mills said:
I know this is a crappy plot, but MUCAPE from the 18z ECMWF shows very adequate instability into the late evening Sat (03z 03/16)

View attachment 34965
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Yeah, what sticks out to me here is this. We often see CAPE struggle to stick around, even as we get into March, but, assuming this pans out, would be a different story, and would likely be further aided by the intense LLJ that would be in full force by then.
 
Bulkshear said:
I wouldn’t view it that way. We really don’t want this to maximize its potential. This is potentially devastating if it happens. I’m like everyone else that enjoys weather, wanting to see a good storm or two, but I don’t want to see carnage
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THAT. PART.

Or if carnage takes place, at least have it take place over open fields or a forested, NON-INHABITED area.
 
Clancy said:
If we're taking the lower-level wind fields modelled by the globals (using 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS here for examples) at face value for the last few runs, something that concerns me is the potential multi-round severe convection and, particularly, the placement and timing of those rounds. Currently, they have leftover convection in the form of a potentially broken QLCS moving through during the morning into midday hours. Interestingly, they do hold instability across much of the Southeast even during the early morning hours, and that instability field expands substantially as daylight comes. As these storms move northeastward, they will take the kinematic energy of the parent low with it, leaving a small period in the afternoon with relatively meager kinematics but substantial instability. Models aren't creating a whole lot of disorganized clutter, at least not enough to nullify destabilization. As evening approaches and sunset nears, an intense LLJ driven by the developing secondary low pressure causes an explosive intensification in wind fields, concurrent with rising convection across MS and western AL, which will propagate northeastward with time. Some of the model runs have depicted the morning activity lifting gradually out of the Deep South and forming a boundary which additional storms may take advantage of later in the day. While isolated storms that form during the peak of the afternoon hours might not have much in the way of kinematics to work with, they would still pose a severe threat, and any leftover boundaries could locally enhance the tornado threat. But where I'm really concerned is how everything plays out come evening. With such an intense LLJ and plenty of moisture across the core of the Southeast, you've got all the ingredients together for a particularly dangerous nocturnal tornado event across much of Alabama and Georgia. Decreasing instability vis-a-vis diurnal heating may temper convective intensity somewhat, but globals still depict instability of at least 250-500 j/kg across even North-Central Georgia well into the night. Will need to see what changes as the days go by, and mesoscale interactions will likely have a substantial influence, especially on afternoon activity, but in any case the ingredients are there for what may be a really rough night for Alabamians and Georgians, including Georgia folks who might not be used to such intense severe storms. Point being, AL and GA folks need to watch this very closely in the coming days.
View attachment 34957View attachment 34958View attachment 34959View attachment 34960View attachment 34961View attachment 34962
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You saying this reminds me of what I think happened on 4-27-2011. Wasn’t there a “morning round” that day too?

I remember Spann saying “watch what happens in the MORNING”. Why am I having all of these flashbacks about these videos for an event I wasn’t even here for (I moved to GA in late 2011).

Sigh
 
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