Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 2/27/17-3/2/17

[GTWXAlum]

This looks like the most potent severe weather threat thus far this year for north Georgia on Wednesday (although that's not saying much, obviously central and especially south GA got rocked with the tornado outbreak back in January). Being in the right entrance region of the mid level jet streak at or near peak heating is cause for concern. Fortunately the wind profiles look a bit too unidirectional for significant tornadoes here although a tornado or two looks possible.

 

[stormcentral]

Im not trying to create any enemies either. This appears to be the greatest for severe wx in my area since the Nov 30, 2016 tornadoes. I was just speaking of the conditons on point click soundings. Regaurdless damaging winds can do as much damage as a low end tornado.

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[MichelleH]

Day 3 outlook and we are already in an enhanced risk. That doesn't bode well to me.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

[stormcentral]

Large enhanced risk area covers N AL E TN AND N GA wednesday

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[Kory]

SPC going with strong tornado wording for day 2 across AR into MS/OH River Valleys. Majority of soundings support that. It's gonna be a rough one tomorrow into Wednesday.

Tomorrow is going to be intriguing for MS/AL/TN region east of the outlooked area. While soundings support severe weather, there doesn't appear to be a trigger to get storms going. Will have to keep an eye on boundaries from today's rain that might linger into tomorrow. IF we do see any initialization for tomorrow, it'll likely be across far NW AL and N MS.

For Wednesday, flow becomes more unidirectional as the day progresses. So any tornado threat will likely be any discrete cells that get going in the morning toward midday for AL. By the afternoon, when the main squall line gets here, flow will be oriented nearly parallel to the boundary, meaning we'll likely be dealing with a widespread damaging wind threat with hail as a secondary threat. Of course, QLCS tornadoes are a possibility, but the main tornado threat will likely be earlier in the day Wednesday for AL.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, tomorrow certainly has the makings of a genuine threat, assuming no VBV issues or anything like that. SPC certainly wasn't kidding with their wording. Be interested to see what they say at 1730.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

This is a nice little setup for Northwest and North Central Georgia. Mesovortices within the line will likely provide the only tornado threat here. Forecast hodographs do maintain some low level curvature as the day progresses...however, as many have stated, damaging winds will be the main threat.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

My thinking for Wednesday is a squall line. Can't rule out the chance of an isolated tornado, but with the low being near Buffalo, cape values being marginal, looks like a big nasty squall line.

 

[stormcentral]

This is a nice little setup for Northwest and North Central Georgia. Mesovortices within the line will likely provide the only tornado threat here. Forecast hodographs do maintain some low level curvature as the day progresses...however, as many have stated, damaging winds will be the main threat.

Still a rare event with a large enhanced area across N AL SE TN & NGA. We all know how easily trees and power lines snap and uproot from the ground. Winds may top 70 mph.

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[warneagle]

New day 1 includes a small slight risk area in NE Tex. with a 5% tornado prob.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Still a rare event with a large enhanced area across N AL SE TN & NGA. We all know how easily trees and power lines snap and uproot from the ground. Winds may top 70 mph.

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Oh definitely. It won't take much to bring down drought weakened trees.

 

[warneagle]

SPC maintained the strong wording and expanded the ENH on the new Day 2.

 

[TornadoFan]

NAM showing some crazy lifted indices.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, the NAM seems really on board with this. Assuming the storms actually fire (SPC sounds more confident on that) my only concern is that a lot of the point soundings on the NAM and GFS have shown pretty unidirectional winds above 800mb or so and a couple have shown some potential VBV issues.

 

[Kory]

Yeah, the NAM seems really on board with this. Assuming the storms actually fire (SPC sounds more confident on that) my only concern is that a lot of the point soundings on the NAM and GFS have shown pretty unidirectional winds above 800mb or so and a couple have shown some potential VBV issues.

I haven't seen any VBV issues and one would think the low amplitude nature of the trough would preclude that problem. What specific region was that for?

But as far as unidirectional flow, that probably will aid in upscale growth into a LEWP or storms clusters tomorrow night. But still curved hodographs in the lowest 1 km, we'll probably still continue with a tor threat within the QLCS Tuesday night. Question is do we get antecedent discrete convection.

 

[warneagle]

I was looking at NE Ark. this was on the 06z run of the NAM. I'd go back and find it but I'm at work. I guess you do have a point though about the trough. Maybe I've just got some April 26th hangover from last year and am looking for it when it's not there.

 

[warneagle]

Severe thunderstorms popping north and east of DFW.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Official forecast update: SPC has dropped the 5% risk, but the TOR:CON index is being kept at 4 for Tuesday and 3 for Wednesday.

 

[stormcentral]

VALID HOUR 72 NAM at site KCHA-TN

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[Kory]

I can't really see that sounding well, but surface wins looks veered out of this world and flow is unidirectional. I still think tomorrow/tomorrow night into very early Wednesday will be the primary tornado threat (and it will be further West from AR/SE MO/W TN/NW MS). It will then quickly transition into a damaging wind/hail threat later Wednesday. You can never rule out a conditional tornado threat further east, but its very conditional as of now. But that DOESN'T mean you should heed warnings because this is "only a damaging wind threat." Take that just as seriously.