Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 2/27/17-3/2/17

[GTWXAlum]

There are timing differences with the frontal passage between the different 12z models, from the naked eye, GFS looks the fastest and the NAM is about 6 hours slower, the Euro looks to be in between.

 

[Kory]

12z NAM actually looks really impressive along a line from about Texarkana to Memphis Tuesday evening. Surface winds are backed decently and no VBV issues, a nice EML, lapse rates over 7.5, surface dews in the upper sixties. I'd be a bit surprised if those dews verified quite that strongly (GFS is keeping them in the lower sixties) but it looks like a pretty strong setup. GFS doesn't seem to want to veer the winds as strongly with height (they're pretty unidirectional above 700 mb). I know people are focused on Wednesday since that's threatening where most people here live, but Tuesday might be one to watch for a decent event, I think...

Yeah there are some nasty soundings from AR into W TN and NW MS for Tuesday. That continues eastward into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

 

[Kory]

There are timing differences with the frontal passage between the different 12z models, from the naked eye, GFS looks the fastest and the NAM is about 6 hours slower, the Euro looks to be in between.

I notice the GFS has been too fast on systems and the NAM too slow. A compromise between the two is probably the best route.

 

[PerryW]

I really hate that this will be a Wednesday event here in Alabama....those don't bode well for us!!

Yes, this looks like a potent storm system Lori......possible tornado outbreak late Tuesday from far NE Texas/ Arkansas to Kentucky/ southern Indiana.....then an intense derecho from Ohio/ Kentucky/ Tennessee/ Mississippi to Alabama/ Georgia/ Carolinas on Wednesday. I wouldn't rule out a few tornadoes either, although the potential for EF3+ tornadoes appears much greater on Tuesday from SE Missouri/ western Kentucky and Arkansas.

 

[stormcentral]

What about southeast TN Perry? Im just guessing that widespread wind damage possible here? Im closely following.

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[PerryW]

What about southeast TN Perry? Im just guessing that widespread wind damage possible here? Im closely following.

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Yes......a threat of widespread (possibly significant) wind damage there on Wednesday.....Alabama/ Georgia/ middle and eastern Tennessee/ Carolinas/ Virginia. A few tornadoes also possible, although most likely EF-0 - EF-1 in those areas.

 

[stormcentral]

Latest NAM indicates poss TOR as hazards again. Supercell composite numbers 5-8 in N AL SE TN. Very concerning for my area.

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[warneagle]

Yeah wow the 18z NAM looks pretty bullish on Wednesday afternoon all of a sudden, all the way from C Ind. to Ala./Miss.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest NAM is looking very interesting.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That's STP valid for 06Z (midnight CST)? Yikes.

 

[Xenesthis]

Latest NAM is looking very interesting.

Think this may be a bit overdone! Highly doubtful this will verify... strong straight line winds yes... tornado threat is low

 

[Kory]

Think this may be a bit overdone! Highly doubtful this will verify... strong straight line winds yes... tornado threat is low

I don't really like looking at parameters like SCP, STP, etc verbatim without taking into account other variables. But what data have you seen that has you thinking Tuesday's tornado threat is low?

 

[stormcentral]

Dangerous outbreak of severe storms to impact AR TN AL GA tuesday and wednesday. Its also severe weather awareness week in TN and a state wide tornado drill is scheduled for 9:30 AM on wednesday morning but will likely be rescheduled due to the threat for severe weather.

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[Timhsv]

OOZ NAM at 54 Hours set at 06Z Wed. just north of Fayetteville, Ar. EHI AT 9.7 AND HELICITY AT 642
Ominous facast sounding. The trend will tell later...

 

[stormcentral]

Latest NAM soundings for KCHA 12Z to 21Z still alarming. And the poss hazard trigger is Tornado. I love how some people are downplaying this threat. Looks like march will roar in like a lion. Its severe weather awareness week across tennessee. Prayers for all.

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[Xenesthis]

Latest NAM soundings for KCHA 12Z to 21Z still alarming. And the poss hazard trigger is Tornado. I love how some people are downplaying this threat. Looks like march will roar in like a lion. Its severe weather awareness week across tennessee. Prayers for all.

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Seriously chill at least until Tuesday... I respectfully disagree with your position! I don't think it's appropriate to play this up as a tornado outbreak! Nor is it appropriate to say it's no big deal. However this looks like a more straight line wind event then a tornado issue..

 

[stormcentral]

Seriously chill at least until Tuesday... I respectfully disagree with your position! I don't think it's appropriate to play this up as a tornado outbreak! Nor is it appropriate to say it's no big deal. However this looks like a more straight line wind event then a tornado issue..

Nobody said anything about a tornado outbreak. Regardless of your input im still entitled to my post to. Thank you.

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[stormcentral]

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[Xenesthis]

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CA seems a bit low for EF2+ tornadoes... You are entitled to your post and I am not trying to create an enemy or cause drama. This just seems like a more linear event with maybe some spin up rotations in the line...