Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

[JPWX]

Pretty sure there is a CC drop on the new TOR for Tillmans Corner.

Yep. Was just noticing that. Would track across the southern part of Mobile if it maintains itself.

 

[JBishopwx]

TDS on radar just southeast of Dees, Al

 

[MMWX]

Here is velocity and CC side-by-side:

 

[cheestaysfly]

Here's to hoping it stays relatively quiet up here in North West Alabama!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Still really good structure on that tornado. Looks weaker on velocity I guess because of proximity to radar. Deeper cc drop currently

 

[AJS]

Look whose house is right in the zone of the updraft helicity. Yours truly

Smithville just can’t seem to catch a break!

 

[cincywx]

 

[AJS]

 

[MMWX]

Gonna be hard to see it on radar if it stays on the ground for the next couple of minutes. Heading right for the KMOB radar. Does look to be weakening, though.

 

[JBishopwx]

NWS Mobile on the edge of taking cover.

 

[JPWX]

I've noticed this on the HRRR and NAM/3km NAM. Is there any particular reason as to why the SCP/STP don't match up to where the storms are? I have noticed that trend over the past few years and just assumed it's because of lack of CAPE further northward. However, I'm beginning to wonder if there's another reason. Question is for someone more fluent in forecast models than I am.

 

[Clancy]

I've noticed this on the HRRR and NAM/3km NAM. Is there any particular reason as to why the SCP/STP don't match up to where the storms are? I have noticed that trend over the past few years and just assumed it's because of lack of CAPE further northward. However, I'm beginning to wonder if there's another reason. Question is for someone more fluent in forecast models than I am.

Dunno, but have noticed this also. There are times when it does verify but it often doesn't. My only guess is somehow the models are not synchronizing convection and convective parameters.

 

[MichelleH]

Sure are a lot of cells popping up in south MS...

 

[Clancy]

18Z NAM and HRRR continue to show a lot of UH. NAM still underconvects but shows similar precip depiction - multiple rounds of strong to severe convection.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sure are a lot of cells popping up in south MS...

Cell north of Hattiesburg has some rotation on it

 

[MichelleH]

Cell north of Hattiesburg has some rotation on it

I do hope we're not about to get several surprises.

 

[MMWX]

Two areas of interest for me currently. Both have rotation.

Cell just NW of Petal, and cell east of Ellisville. East of Ellisville needs a warning.

 

[Tanner]

I really don’t love seeing a debris ball and associated tornado near Mobile. I hope people are aware that more might be coming.

 

[MMWX]

Ellisville cell I was just talking about.

 

[Clancy]

Wowsers SE of Laurel. Strong couplet moving NE.