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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

I admittedly have not looked at the environmental conditions/models for today (this is honestly the first time I've paid attention to the weather since the fall semester ended), but just looking at radar, I'm very interested to see how this line of storms near the coast SW of Houston develop.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
I admittedly have not looked at the environmental conditions/models for today (this is honestly the first time I've paid attention to the weather since the fall semester ended), but just looking at radar, I'm very interested to see how this line of storms near the coast SW of Houston develop.
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I was holed up at the Library of Congress all day and hadn't even read the Day 1 and I come home to a 70/40 watch, alrighty then
 
Wouldn't be surprised if tornado threat maximizes over E TX and W LA as very strong helicity spreads over the region. The QLCS is still maintaining a rather discrete presentation, so strong tornado risk remains.
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I went to have supper and watch a episode of KOJAK to come back to a big uptick in activity.
 
MD 2287: SPC expects possible reinvigoration of storms as they move into LA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 262257Z - 270000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to spread into central and
southern Louisiana this evening. New tornado watch appears
warranted.

DISCUSSION...Strong, negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting
across east TX early this evening. 500mb speed max is forecast to
translate across northern LA which will encourage LLJ to shift north
across the lower MS over the next 3-6hr. As this occurs, warm sector
will recover a bit across LA, especially southwestern LA where
surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This will
contribute to near-surface based buoyancy, that appears adequate,
for maintaining ongoing, upstream supercell activity. Latest radar
data depicts several longer-lived supercells over southeast TX that
will track northeast into a strongly sheared air mass, just east of
ww715. This evolving risk likely warrants a new tornado watch
immediately downstream.

..Darrow.. 12/26/2024
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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2287

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I don't think I've seen a single warning today go to "TORR" status, even when a tornado LSR pops up on GR Level 3.
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There was a TORP at one point, but yeah, there's been at least two storms with tornadoes that never had TORR upgrades; the one earlier in the day SW of Houston actually expired just a few minutes after the first reports of the tornado rolled in as the meso had already collapsed by then.
 
Don't know if I'm the only one getting slight March 24th 2023 (Rolling Fork vibes) - not to say that will happen again, in any form - but the compact embedded trough with a fairly broad warm sector, anomalous instability and consistent uptrends in a similar region have me thinking this should be watched closely.

The fact the word-class experts have gone for a 30% SIG at D3 does suggest the potential for something noteworthy... let's hope not.
 
UK_EF4 said:
Don't know if I'm the only one getting slight March 24th 2023 (Rolling Fork vibes) - not to say that will happen again, in any form - but the compact embedded trough with a fairly broad warm sector, anomalous instability and consistent uptrends in a similar region have me thinking this should be watched closely.

The fact the word-class experts have gone for a 30% SIG at D3 does suggest the potential for something noteworthy... let's hope not.
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That did cross my mind, yeah
 
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