Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

[AJS]

It is really trying.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Looks like we have something on the ground near Klein

 

[AJS]

Looks like we have something on the ground near Klein

S**t. Know a lot of people that reside there.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

excrement. Know a lot of people that reside there.

No cc drop yet, think they're okay at the moment, still would take cover though.

 

[AJS]

 

[jiharris0220]

Once again we are shown that global models almost always underestimate instability/warm air advection when a trough digs down this far south in the winter.

A vice versa thing happens with global models particularly underestimating southern extent of shallow arctic air masses.

 

[treypops]

Something is trying to spin up just south of Willis.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 32148

I think it's about to explode , it's developing a actual hook now, if it clears out a little in the inflow it'll probably take off

 

[AJS]

I think it's about to explode , it's developing a actual hook now, if it clears out a little in the inflow it'll probably take off

Yeah… this does not look good.

 

[slenker]

With how things are going, I expect an upgrade to high risk at this point.

 

[UK_EF4]

Does anyone know if the SPC has ever gone for a High Risk upgrade exclusively at 20z?

 

[AJS]

That Willis storm is really tightening up.

 

[treypops]

North of the TOR, just passing through Willis.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

About at the point of throwing out the hrrr model, because it's not accurately portraying the environment so we're basically running off a inaccurate information set. One is the hrrr with projected current values and the other is real time analysis of surface cape.

 

[MMWX]

North of the TOR, just passing through Willis.

View attachment 32149

They just put a SVR on it. Wrong warning.

 

[KAC11]

Sun is out in full force in Mobile...I know we're just inside the enhanced but this *feels* funny outside...

 

[treypops]

They just put a SVR on it. Wrong warning.

It's a little broad right now but it's spinning

 

[SilentShadow87]

Does anyone know if the SPC has ever gone for a High Risk upgrade exclusively at 20z?

April 27, 2014. Interestingly enough the Vilonia tornado was the only tornado that touched down in the high risk area that day. It was a classic "it only takes one" event.

 

[Kds86z]

I know this is a weaker tornado but…. The shape of the bottom funnel seems Indicative of a volatile environment? Am I making sense?

 

[lake.effect]

Watching the cell south of The Woodlands cell as well...Houston area needs to stay on their toes. Could see training supercells.