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Severe Weather Threat 1/5-1/6/2025

New Day 2 Outlook:
Slight Risk expanded eastward to Meridian and up to Tupelo
Enhanced Risk remains same mostly with slight expansion back west and somewhat east. 10% non hatch tornado risk introduced.
 

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I do expect that both the Enhanced Risk as well as 10% tornado probability gets expanded eastward to Meridian up to Tupelo.
 
JPWX said:
New Day 2 Outlook:
Slight Risk expanded eastward to Meridian and up to Tupelo
Enhanced Risk remains same mostly with slight expansion back west and somewhat east. 10% non hatch tornado risk introduced.
Click to expand...
Dang that 10% came sooner than I thought! Haha I thought it would be issued day of the event. I'm wondering if a hatched area will be introduced, I wouldn't place my bets on it currently as of now.
 
12Z HRRR depicts some semi-discrete convection ahead of the prefrontal QLCS, and suggests that the tornado threat will likely maximize somewhere along the AR/LA/MS borders in the evening. NAM 3km depicts highest threat over parts of LA and has a somewhat more impressive kinematic environment (soundings from Rolling Fork vicinity and NE LA, respectively). Lean towards HRRR solution; in any case, QLCS tornado threat and serious damaging winds from squall line activity. NAM UH shows fairly light swaths, but as has been discussed before, it tends to underdo it.
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It'll be a dangerous day tommorow if you can get a few supercells rooted and going tommorow, looks like based on the HRRR that you'll have about 6 hour or so before the line catches up. Real time observations and whether the winds get a little more backed in the low levels tommorow will go a long way. I think im expecting a hatched area by day 1; just looking through things for tommorow but it's more conditional than the last severe threat we had. We will have to see how the day starts out/ plays out tommorow morning. I'm excited, it's been forever since we've had any palpable severe weather threats in the south and we've gotten two close together! Tommorow can definitely be a dangerous tornado day but it's very conditional!!

*Both the WRF and HRRR show lots of low top kidney beans ahead of the front so that makes me a little nervous haha. If they can get going we will be in trouble
 
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The early morning runs on the HRRR were more impressive than the current one, but the current one still hints at two broken rows of potential supercells. Will just have to watch how they day evolves. refcmp.us_se (8).pngrefcmp.us_se (9).png
 
That deeper color UD track on 12z HRRR is from roughly Rolling Fork, MS to Fulton, MS.
 

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Sun is shining bright here in Smithville currently. Much earlier than on December 28th
 
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