Severe Weather Threat 1/5-1/6/2025

[ashtonlemleywx]

Just when I thought this was going to hug the coast...

 

[JPWX]

Looking at 6z GFS, 00z Euro, and now latest 12z GFS, only two things standout to me.

1. Wind shear looks decent (honestly more decent than the post Christmas outbreak at this range)
2. The surface low isn't too far north either on all three runs (eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas)

That's all I've got at this range until I see something more eye catching or noteworthy.

 

[slenker]

Looking at 6z GFS, 00z Euro, and now latest 12z GFS, only two things standout to me.

1. Wind shear looks decent (honestly more decent than the post Christmas outbreak at this range)
2. The surface low isn't too far north either on all three runs (eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas)

That's all I've got at this range until I see something more eye catching or noteworthy.

I recall seeing some really eye-popping shear on previous runs, really intensely curved hodographs but there just wasn’t enough warm sector coinciding with it. Hopefully it stays that way.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I've been impressed with the EURO's consistency on this upcoming system for Sunday. The GFS turned the corner today and favors this as a noteworthy severe threat for the areas SPC highlights in their day 5 forecast.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[MichelleH]

Moved farther north...

 

[Clancy]

Looks like a definite threat to MS and perhaps Western AL, but thankfully for those farther east, insufficient moisture chokes off the threat.

 

[KevinH]

Looks like a definite threat to MS and perhaps Western AL, but thankfully for those farther east, insufficient moisture chokes off the threat.

That’s what can happen when you (in Georgia) have a state directly South of you (Florida) lol

Unlike LA, MS, and AL who literally have NOTHING between them and the Gulf

 

[Clancy]

That’s what can happen when you (in Georgia) have a state directly South of you (Florida) lol

Unlike LA, MS, and AL who literally have NOTHING between them and the Gulf

I could definitely see a coastal threat in the Panhandle. I would still watch it since you're in Columbus, but I doubt it'll be anything like last week for us.

 

[KevinH]

I could definitely see a coastal threat in the Panhandle. I would still watch it since you're in Columbus, but I doubt it'll be anything like last week for us.

Where are you?

 

[Clancy]

Where are you?

West Atlanta metro.

 

[KevinH]

West Atlanta metro.

Ok cool

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

 

[Ledian]

Didn't know i was in the risk area until sister texted me. Definitely curious to see how this goes...hopefully nothing major happens

 

[slenker]

I could see this system being more robust than 12/28. Shear looks better and the models may be underrating the moisture return like they did on the last threat. The bulk shear vectors have good perpendicularity with the initiating boundary as well. However, it does seem to face similar issues though, like the lack of an EML and whatnot.

 

[Austin Dawg]

That’s what can happen when you (in Georgia) have a state directly South of you (Florida) lol

Unlike LA, MS, and AL who literally have NOTHING between them and the Gulf

That is the biggest reason I believe those states have so much severe weather. It really centers in east MS and the Western half of AL.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

That is the biggest reason I believe those states have so much severe weather. It really centers in east MS and the Western half of AL.

It 100% has to do with our proximity to the Gulf.

LA, MS, AR, E.TX, and AL is considered a perfect convergence zone in the winter for severe weather. We lie at the crossroads where cold fronts from the North collide with the warm moist air from the Gulf, thus creating a strong temperature gradient. Florida is closer to the Gulf, but temp gradients aren't as sharp because cold fronts typically weaken as they move southward into Florida and the cold air is usually more diluted. Also trough axis/jet stream usually doesn't go that far Southeast before it ejects to the Northeast. Florida, being farther south, is usually outside the core of this dynamic energy. Essentially the clash isn't as dramatic as it is in LA, AR, MS, E. TX, and AL.

 

[Tanner]

I could see this system being more robust than 12/28. Shear looks better and the models may be underrating the moisture return like they did on the last threat. The bulk shear vectors have good perpendicularity with the initiating boundary as well. However, it does seem to face similar issues though, like the lack of an EML and whatnot.

Give me good shear and just enough moisture and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Give me good shear and just enough moisture and the rest will take care of itself.

Moisture will likely show up when we get to CAM range this weekend. Global deterministic models have a known bias for poor moisture advection in the Winter.

 

[KevinH]

It 100% has to do with our proximity to the Gulf.

LA, MS, AR, E.TX, and AL is considered a perfect convergence zone in the winter for severe weather. We lie at the crossroads where cold fronts from the North collide with the warm moist air from the Gulf, thus creating a strong temperature gradient. Florida is closer to the Gulf, but temp gradients aren't as sharp because cold fronts typically weaken as they move southward into Florida and the cold air is usually more diluted. Also trough axis/jet stream usually doesn't go that far Southeast before it ejects to the Northeast. Florida, being farther south, is usually outside the core of this dynamic energy. Essentially the clash isn't as dramatic as it is in LA, AR, MS, E. TX, and AL.

And Georgia… (usually lol)