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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

US_Highway15 said:
SPC stays Moderate Risk. No change in the outlook.

"Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of
Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of
damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will overspread parts of the Midwest
and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. A deep surface low initially
within the Upper Midwest is forecast to evolve across the lower
Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. A strong low-level jet will
advect rich surface moisture ahead of a cold front through the
period. A warm front, likely reinforced by morning convection is
expected to lift northward into parts of central/northern Illinois
and northern Indiana/Ohio. Potent wind fields for this point in June
will support a threat for scattered to numerous severe storms
capable of all severe hazards -- including strong to intense
tornadoes, very-large hail, and 75+ mph winds.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into northern Indiana/far western Ohio...
A majority of the CAMs as well as regional/global guidance suggest
convection will be ongoing in parts of eastern Iowa early Wednesday
morning. This activity will shift through northern/central Illinois
into Indiana. Some risk for damaging winds will probably accompany
this activity. The degree to which this cluster of convection can
intensify through mid/late morning is not clear. The environment
with eastward extent will begin drier and less unstable. The most
probable outcome is that this convection shifts east-southeast
relatively quickly and weakens with time.

The more substantial severe threat is expected to develop perhaps by
early/mid afternoon and depend strongly upon how morning convection
evolves spatially. Given the strong moisture advection into the
region, it is reasonable to expect an area of relatively rapid
airmass recovery from the Quad Cities vicinity into parts of central
Illinois. Storms that form in this environment near the surface
low/warm front will likely be discrete and take advantage of strong
low-level shear. Large to very-large hail, significant wind gusts,
and strong/intense tornadoes will all be possible. As convection
continues eastward into Indiana, the low-level moisture will be
improving with time.

...Southeast Kansas into Missouri...
Along the cold front, scattered storms are expected to develop by
mid/late afternoon. With mid-level height falls not being overly
strong and effective shear vectors have a large orthogonal component
across the front, storms will likely be supercellular for a few
hours. Steep mid-level and low-level lapse rates will promote a risk
of large/very-large hail as well as potentially 75+ mph wind gusts.
Despite being west of the low-level jet core, low-level wind fields
will still support a risk of tornadoes, some of which could be
strong.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is forecast to move northeastward with
time. The marginally enhanced low-level wind fields will support
weak supercell structures that may produce brief, weak tornadoes.
Given the poor thermodynamic environment and the main timing of the
threat being during the evening/overnight, the overall threat should
remain marginal.

..Wendt.. 06/16/2026"
Click to expand...
I’m shocked at how muted this outlook is considering what the models have been showing for the past 18 hours. The parameter space is absolutely supportive of violent, long-tracked tornadoes, including particularly high-end/destructive tornadoes. They use none of those words here, nor give any indication that they may consider an upgrade to a level 5 out of 5 risk if models continue with their current trends or questions regarding the ceiling of this event are resolved.

This is a set-up that absolutely warrants the use of that kind of language, even if uncertainties exist that preclude a CIG3 or high risk for now. It’s noting that the potential is there. If this modeled parameter space doesn’t warrant that language, then I don’t know what would.
 
Last edited:
DanLarsen34 said:
I’m shocked at how muted this outlook is considering what the models have been showing for the past 18 hours. The parameter space is absolutely supportive of violent, long-tracked tornadoes, including particularly high-end/destructive tornadoes. They use none of those words here, nor give any indication that they may consider an upgrade to a level 5 out of 5 risk if models continue with their current trends or questions regarding the ceiling of this event are resolved.

This is a set-up that absolutely warrants the use of that kind of language, even if uncertainties exist that preclude a CIG3 or high risk for now. If this modeled parameter space doesn’t warrant that language, then I don’t know what would.
Click to expand...
It really just depends on the forecaster.
The Mets in Chicago for example go all in and then some with the wording.
If this was broyles we probably would’ve had a high risk at day 2.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
I’m shocked at how muted this outlook is considering what the models have been showing for the past 18 hours. The parameter space is absolutely supportive of violent, long-tracked tornadoes, including particularly high-end/destructive tornadoes. They use none of those words here, nor give any indication that they may consider an upgrade to a level 5 out of 5 risk if models continue with their current trends or questions regarding the ceiling of this event are resolved.

This is a set-up that absolutely warrants the use of that kind of language, even if uncertainties exist that preclude a CIG3 or high risk for now. If this modeled parameter space doesn’t warrant that language, then I don’t know what would.
Click to expand...

It's worth noting the 15z RAP and 12z NAM have trended down slightly. Maybe they see something on their end that makes them think the ridiculous kinematics and instability are unlikely to intersect significantly. However, even along the line down through Missouri there's still a 30-50 kt LLJ, 70 kt effective shear and 200+ m2s2 SRH. Plus 3-4k CAPE in abundance. You think that'd at least be worth more serious language, even if it is your "run of the mill" outbreak synoptics. (though, the 70 kt effective shear is elite).
 
I don't buy into the idea that Broyles isn't behind the scenes heavily influencing every outlook, and agreeing with 95% of what is put out. Surely, the forecasters who do these write ups are just assigned to the task on specific days, and they all meet and discuss each forecast together, and reach a consensus.
 
I typically wouldn’t be this critical of a forecast write-up by them, but this is an exceptional circumstance. The forecast discussion should be detailing their thinking more than it does so here, including outlining what they think the potential failure modes are. It’s a complex forecast that warrants more detailed discussion than what is given.

While I don’t think a more muted/brief discussion would be as potentially harmful if the risk area where somewhere accustomed to experiencing high-impact events, I am concerned about that here given that the areas in-play tomorrow are not areas accustomed to this potential magnitude of threat.

That said, it’s on local offices and Mets to better convey the threat since ultimately the write-up of the SPC is really only read by people like us and Mets.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
I typically wouldn’t be this critical of a forecast write-up by them, but this is an exceptional circumstance. The forecast discussion should be detailing their thinking more than it does so here, including outlining what they think the potential failure modes are. It’s a complex forecast that warrants more detailed discussion than what is given.

While I don’t think a more muted/brief discussion would be as potentially harmful if the risk area where somewhere accustomed to experiencing high-impact events, I am concerned about that here given that the areas in-play tomorrow are not areas accustomed to this potential magnitude of threat.

That said, it’s on local offices and Mets to better convey the threat since ultimately the write-up of the SPC is really only read by people like us and Mets.
Click to expand...
Meanwhile NWS Lincoln:Screenshot_2026-06-16-14-52-14-65_b72a20be883aec8a014bd2b7c7038e87.jpg
 
genie said:
Meanwhile NWS Lincoln:
Click to expand...
I expect them to be in downtown Lincoln tomorrow doing this:
Simpsons Apocalypse GIF


In all seriousness though, that's an all time NWS quote lol
 
From NWS IWX. Key words/phrases they used is this being a rare setup with the potential for long lived tornadoes. First time I've seen them mention a setup or a day being a "potentially dangerous situation."

"The ingredients look to be well in place and a very hearty mid-
level flow around 60 knots with a low level jet expecting to
strengthen into the evening. This really is a rare type set-up
especially for this time of the year with that much mid-level
flow in this synoptic pattern. SB CAPE values progged around
1500 J/kg with bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. Lapse rates of
8 deg/km and PWATs around 2 inches. The forecasted helicity
values will be pretty much off the charts at a 500-600 m2/s2.
Effective layer STP values of 10 to 11. Wow. All threats are on
the table and SPC currently has our area under a moderate to
slight risk for severe thunderstorms and a tornado threat around
15%. The main threats will be very strong gusty winds and large
hail of around 2 inches in diameter and of course tornados,
some becoming long- lived possible. Also, a threat of localized
flooding will be possible with the very efficient rainfall with
the elevated PWATs, even considering the fast moving nature of
the storms. So this is a potentially very dangerous situation
and one would be wise to use caution and stay very weather aware
tomorrow. Make sure to have multiple means of receiving
warnings and keep your cell phones charged up and a fresh set of
batteries in your weather radios in ca
se of power outages."
 
DanLarsen34 said:
I typically wouldn’t be this critical of a forecast write-up by them, but this is an exceptional circumstance. The forecast discussion should be detailing their thinking more than it does so here, including outlining what they think the potential failure modes are. It’s a complex forecast that warrants more detailed discussion than what is given.

While I don’t think a more muted/brief discussion would be as potentially harmful if the risk area where somewhere accustomed to experiencing high-impact events, I am concerned about that here given that the areas in-play tomorrow are not areas accustomed to this potential magnitude of threat.

That said, it’s on local offices and Mets to better convey the threat since ultimately the write-up of the SPC is really only read by people like us and Mets.
Click to expand...
IMO there are still enough questions above overnight/morning convection and its impacts on destabilization near the warm front to not issue a high risk. You have to remember that they are boxing themselves into a worst case scenario if they issue a high, and then all manner of hell will break loose if it busts (unlikely, but still not impossible). The fact that the moisture is not there yet, despite the very strong wind fields, is enough uncertainty to preclude a high risk.
 
I just don’t see a high risk being issued until tomorrow. The SPC is absolutely reserved when issuing those now. They need absolutely model clarity and an expansive enough parameter space to be confident enough.

March 31/April 1st, 2023 was a slam dunk model forecast for days like this one, but the SPC didn’t issue a high risk until literally a few hours before the event began.
I believe it will be the same with this one; if the morning MCS (which will be north of the approaching warm front for the entirety of its life) ends up being even further north to the point where it allows for the warm front to advect northward into southern Michigan, and the uncertainty regarding the southern section of the warm sector if storms can truly sustain themselves or not is resolved, then a high risk becomes inevitable.
If the two aforementioned scenarios are not fulfilled, then this will stay a moderate, either way, a tornado outbreak is almost certain to occur, the question is how bad will it be.
 
Jbop said:
Click to expand...


So he's doing them shirtless now? He's gone full Ginger Billy. The irony of course being that this comedic skit was based on Glenn Powell's character in Twisters, which was no doubt based at least in part on Reed.

 
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