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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
bckhd2
Member
I can't see them going Day 2 High after all of the trouble they've had this year with underperforming events and PDS watches, etc., but I always assume the SPC knows something I don't.
jiharris0220
Member
That absolutely has nothing to do with their decision to whether put a high risk this early or not.
Any reasons for not going high would be out of subjective abstaining to wait and see if cams continue to remain consistent through tonight, or spatial uncertainty reasons.
UpperLevelLOL
Member
I doubt they go high this early. Latest model runs were scary to be sure but it'd be good (well, bad) to see more consistency before busting out the pink sharpie.
speedbump305
Member
When does the 17:30 update come out?
Kds86z
Member
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF SRH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED WITH
TIME, WITH A SHIFT IN THE MAIN THREA
ENHANCEMENT OF SRH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED WITH
TIME, WITH A SHIFT IN THE MAIN THREA
Knew they wouldn't go high, but there was a notable absence of the word "violent" in any of the discussion. I'm actually really surprised by that.
US_Highway15
Member
SPC stays Moderate Risk. No change in the outlook.
"Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of
Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of
damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will overspread parts of the Midwest
and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. A deep surface low initially
within the Upper Midwest is forecast to evolve across the lower
Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. A strong low-level jet will
advect rich surface moisture ahead of a cold front through the
period. A warm front, likely reinforced by morning convection is
expected to lift northward into parts of central/northern Illinois
and northern Indiana/Ohio. Potent wind fields for this point in June
will support a threat for scattered to numerous severe storms
capable of all severe hazards -- including strong to intense
tornadoes, very-large hail, and 75+ mph winds.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley into northern Indiana/far western Ohio...
A majority of the CAMs as well as regional/global guidance suggest
convection will be ongoing in parts of eastern Iowa early Wednesday
morning. This activity will shift through northern/central Illinois
into Indiana. Some risk for damaging winds will probably accompany
this activity. The degree to which this cluster of convection can
intensify through mid/late morning is not clear. The environment
with eastward extent will begin drier and less unstable. The most
probable outcome is that this convection shifts east-southeast
relatively quickly and weakens with time.
The more substantial severe threat is expected to develop perhaps by
early/mid afternoon and depend strongly upon how morning convection
evolves spatially. Given the strong moisture advection into the
region, it is reasonable to expect an area of relatively rapid
airmass recovery from the Quad Cities vicinity into parts of central
Illinois. Storms that form in this environment near the surface
low/warm front will likely be discrete and take advantage of strong
low-level shear. Large to very-large hail, significant wind gusts,
and strong/intense tornadoes will all be possible. As convection
continues eastward into Indiana, the low-level moisture will be
improving with time.
...Southeast Kansas into Missouri...
Along the cold front, scattered storms are expected to develop by
mid/late afternoon. With mid-level height falls not being overly
strong and effective shear vectors have a large orthogonal component
across the front, storms will likely be supercellular for a few
hours. Steep mid-level and low-level lapse rates will promote a risk
of large/very-large hail as well as potentially 75+ mph wind gusts.
Despite being west of the low-level jet core, low-level wind fields
will still support a risk of tornadoes, some of which could be
strong.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is forecast to move northeastward with
time. The marginally enhanced low-level wind fields will support
weak supercell structures that may produce brief, weak tornadoes.
Given the poor thermodynamic environment and the main timing of the
threat being during the evening/overnight, the overall threat should
remain marginal.
..Wendt.. 06/16/2026"
"Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of
Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of
damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will overspread parts of the Midwest
and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. A deep surface low initially
within the Upper Midwest is forecast to evolve across the lower
Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. A strong low-level jet will
advect rich surface moisture ahead of a cold front through the
period. A warm front, likely reinforced by morning convection is
expected to lift northward into parts of central/northern Illinois
and northern Indiana/Ohio. Potent wind fields for this point in June
will support a threat for scattered to numerous severe storms
capable of all severe hazards -- including strong to intense
tornadoes, very-large hail, and 75+ mph winds.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley into northern Indiana/far western Ohio...
A majority of the CAMs as well as regional/global guidance suggest
convection will be ongoing in parts of eastern Iowa early Wednesday
morning. This activity will shift through northern/central Illinois
into Indiana. Some risk for damaging winds will probably accompany
this activity. The degree to which this cluster of convection can
intensify through mid/late morning is not clear. The environment
with eastward extent will begin drier and less unstable. The most
probable outcome is that this convection shifts east-southeast
relatively quickly and weakens with time.
The more substantial severe threat is expected to develop perhaps by
early/mid afternoon and depend strongly upon how morning convection
evolves spatially. Given the strong moisture advection into the
region, it is reasonable to expect an area of relatively rapid
airmass recovery from the Quad Cities vicinity into parts of central
Illinois. Storms that form in this environment near the surface
low/warm front will likely be discrete and take advantage of strong
low-level shear. Large to very-large hail, significant wind gusts,
and strong/intense tornadoes will all be possible. As convection
continues eastward into Indiana, the low-level moisture will be
improving with time.
...Southeast Kansas into Missouri...
Along the cold front, scattered storms are expected to develop by
mid/late afternoon. With mid-level height falls not being overly
strong and effective shear vectors have a large orthogonal component
across the front, storms will likely be supercellular for a few
hours. Steep mid-level and low-level lapse rates will promote a risk
of large/very-large hail as well as potentially 75+ mph wind gusts.
Despite being west of the low-level jet core, low-level wind fields
will still support a risk of tornadoes, some of which could be
strong.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is forecast to move northeastward with
time. The marginally enhanced low-level wind fields will support
weak supercell structures that may produce brief, weak tornadoes.
Given the poor thermodynamic environment and the main timing of the
threat being during the evening/overnight, the overall threat should
remain marginal.
..Wendt.. 06/16/2026"
Kds86z
Member
It’s out.
US_Highway15
Member
Yeah, wonder what NWS Chicago thinks. No mention of consideration of going high, which I guess makes sense.
genie
Member
I truly don't see a high risk being issued until it's Day 1. There is still time for the models to downtrend enough to not warrant issuing a high risk. Moderate is enough for now IMO.
speedbump305
Member
I mean, the outlook for March 14, 2025 didn’t mention violent if I recall correctly. And we had easily more than two EF4s occur that night.
The environment is easily supportive of violent tornadoes happening.
Kds86z
Member
Shocking for Reed. Lol
tornado examiner
Member
This is a sudden paradox I’m not familiar with. Since when he not hype up events like this?
What world am I living in and how do I get back my own??
speedbump305
Member
It might just be me who noticed this ( and I hope I don’t sound like a dumbass for what i’m about to say lol ) but i’ve noticed lately that Reed is a little more hyperbolic when the threat is a little more uncertain and is less hyperbolic when it’s obvious a dangerous day is in store. I hope this doesn’t sound dumb lol. Just what i’ve observed.
Perhaps it’s to discourage novice chasers. I can only imagine how bad convergence is going to be tomorrow (especially after Thursday), and with fast moving violent long trackers possible, el Reno 2026 is just waiting to happen
speedbump305
Member
Probably. There’s no doubt though that Reed knows what he’s doing. I think his love for chasing can just cause him to get a bit too excited sometimes lol. But regardless, he is generally one of the smarter chasers out there. There are some complete dunces out there.