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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

tennessee storm chaser said:
That’s why I think when all said done we will be seeing two areas being outlined highest risk … really think risk they have now is will see
More damaging wind threat. Greater forcing furthet
North Monday
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I'm with you. Things are still in flux. Don't necessarily agree with SPC Day 5 on this go round
 
genie said:
Those secondary lows can wreak havoc. Interested to see how that feature evolves.
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Yep, I'm not saying this event will be anywhere near like last years. But last year March 15th for Mississippi and Alabama. It wasn't completely evident a low pressure system was going to form for the deep south and then it did as we got closer and became evident. Just something to watch as of now.

I may go back and check and see how long it took for the models to start forecasting the secondary low. If memory serves me correct it was like 3-4 days out.
 
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Monday really has me worried. So far, all the soundings and models have been consistently showing a significant severe weather outbreak could be in store. Curious to see how the models play out over the next few days.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Reed Timmer post about the 2026 Super Outbreak soon lol. ( All jokes, I do not want this to happen at all. )
 
12Z GFS once again really likes the idea of having a separate wave of storms Tuesday afternoon across the Southeast. Interestingly, dynamics actually look a good bit better than I anticipated, and is a noticeable uptrend from previous runs. Kinematics aren't mind-boggling, but would be more than enough for severe storms, including tornadoes. While the magnitude of risk from this stuff wouldn't be the same as what will happen to the northwest on Monday, it could still be pretty potent. That said, sometimes storms like this are modelled, but end up being little more than a convective fart, especially if greater dynamics are lifting out of the region. Kinda hard to ignore the signal though, given that it's been consistent on putting out some pretty prolific-looking convection across MS/AL/GA Tuesday afternoon. Sounding taken from the AL/GA/TN triple-point Tuesday afternoon. As it stands, looks rather like we will have an overnight QLCS situation late Monday into Tuesday morning, followed by another wave of storms, maybe even some discrete stuff Tuesday afternoon into the evening. There's still plenty of details to be ironed out, so for many people on this forum's neck of the woods, I dunno if I'd call this a slam-dunk as far as knowing what we're actually gonna be dealing with goes, only that there will almost definitely be one, if not two waves of strong storms. Regardless, very curious to see how this pans out.
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ThatGuy;P said:
At this point, if nothing changes about Monday's setup to the day of, would Sunday going haywire even have that much of an effect at diminishing Monday's threat?
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I don't know whether it would necessarily diminish Monday's threat, but I think it would certainly have an impact. As we've seen so many times recently, these events can come down to the slightest change in the environment even at the mesoscale or storm level. Any convection on Sunday, even more so if significant, can lead to downstream changes in the environment for Monday that could impact the way that event plays out.
 
I'm definitely curious why there's so much confidence across all the models (deterministic, ensemble, AI) when there's still so much variability on the placement, timing, and geometry of the trough and placement of the low pressure system. The spaghetti plots of 500 mb winds still seem to be quite all over the place.

There's gotta be a larger scale pattern we're entering that is analogous with significant severe weather events, right?
 
T
jackhutwx said:


big yikes on the 12z gfs for monday (sounding taken from south-central illinois)
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Taken verbatim, that’s an absolutely upper-echelon parameter space that would rival any individual set-up we’ve had in the past 15 years. There’s only a handful of days, if even, that happen every decade where you’ve got an open warm sector with this kind of shear/instability. You almost never see OWS regimes with STP values over 10. Anything over 6, especially this time of the year, would typically be where we start to talk about a high degree of confidence in violent tornadoes occurring.
 
I think Alabama and Mississippi in particular are about to hit a stretch of consecutive days next week for severe weather. Euro screams it. Maybe not high end or significant weather each day. But definitely a active stretch for dixie. 12z is one heck of a active period for Alabama. Maybe 4-5 days straight of some sort of severe weather
 
If these rain totals on the GFS, Euro, Canadian verify thru next 10+ days, we could go from drought to flooding issues quickly. Also, since the ground is so dry in many places, the rain that falls won't soak in as quickly either leading to excessive runoff. Could get big problems if we get any storm training over the same places.
 
This upcoming pattern does remind me a little of Late April/Early May 2010.
 
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