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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

tennessee storm chaser said:
Sounds like to me a lot of unknown on Monday… particular with the super cell
Development .
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Still talking about a few strong tornadoes, which is crazy for this far out, but I can't say I disagree. I'm curious particularly if the ingredients and threat move any further east as the more CAMS/models come in.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Still talking about a few strong tornadoes, which is crazy for this far out, but I can't say I disagree. I'm curious particularly if the ingredients and threat move any further east as the more CAMS/models come in.
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Yeah anxious to get into cam and short range on the Mondays setup.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Day 4 outlook was a bit odd. Wording rather tame considering the massive expansion of the 30% contour.
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100 percent agree… sounded little odd to me . Like it was mentioned already , they did use strong tornado wording . Another odd thing to me was. , the enhanced is much larger than the slight risk lol…. Look for
Even more adjustments later outlooks
 
Saturday is looking more like a player and less like a side character this morning. Could have a sneaky but potent tornado threat, not that different than yesterday (although I think the ceiling is probably EF3 tomorrow)

Sunday remains the highest-ceiling day. SBCAPE/MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg east of the dryline, a 50-knot low-level jet, and rapid surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains create an environment capable of violent tornadoes — but initiation remains cap-dependent. Whatever breaks through will be significant.

Monday's threat has sharpened considerably. SPC has a 30% area across the Mid-Mississippi Valley at Day 4, targeting Memphis through Nashville and Birmingham. Forcing is less conditional, and if Sunday leaves the warm sector intact, Monday inherits a pristine environment for afternoon discrete supercells in the Tennessee Valley.

Both Sunday and Monday carry realistic paths to high risk. Sunday more likely reaches moderate; Monday enhanced or moderate.
 
I certainly do not understand why that 15% for Monday has been pulled so far North out of most of North MS. Maybe it's because of supercell development unknowns, but still it doesn't make a bit of sense.
 
cniemczura said:
Any type of outlook for Southern/Central Indiana and SW Ohio for Monday?
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At this point, it looks like heavy rain will be the main threat on Monday in the cincinnati tri-state region. The best dynamics for severe thunderstorms are currently modeled further to the west.
 
JPWX said:
I certainly do not understand why that 15% for Monday has been pulled so far North out of most of North MS. Maybe it's because of supercell development unknowns, but still it doesn't make a bit of sense.
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Still say you see some
More big adjustments coming Monday … see how
Sunday plays out is a big thing
 
ColdFront said:
That’s just Kerr being Kerr.
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I will say, the GFS evolution has become a little less negatively tilted with the shortwave over the last day or so. On the 06Z run the axis looks neutral to slightly positively tilted at 00Z Tuesday. However that just the operational output of one model. It did previously look more negatively tilted though for example on the 00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) run.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I will say, the GFS evolution has become a little less negatively tilted with the shortwave over the last day or so. On the 06Z run the axis looks neutral to slightly positively tilted at 00Z Tuesday. However that just the operational output of one model. It did previously look more negatively tilted though for example on the 00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) run.
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Interesting. As @slenker noted, it was bound to start to flip-flop a little instead of going up continuously through Monday.
 
lake.effect said:
Saturday is looking more like a player and less like a side character this morning. Could have a sneaky but potent tornado threat, not that different than yesterday (although I think the ceiling is probably EF3 tomorrow)

Sunday remains the highest-ceiling day. SBCAPE/MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg east of the dryline, a 50-knot low-level jet, and rapid surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains create an environment capable of violent tornadoes — but initiation remains cap-dependent. Whatever breaks through will be significant.

Monday's threat has sharpened considerably. SPC has a 30% area across the Mid-Mississippi Valley at Day 4, targeting Memphis through Nashville and Birmingham. Forcing is less conditional, and if Sunday leaves the warm sector intact, Monday inherits a pristine environment for afternoon discrete supercells in the Tennessee Valley.

Both Sunday and Monday carry realistic paths to high risk. Sunday more likely reaches moderate; Monday enhanced or moderate.
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CAMS continue to show an area of enhanced low level shear around a boundary left over from tonights convection for tomorrow evening.
 
lake.effect said:
CAMs are not resolving the convective coverage for Sunday night into Monday, which will be a key factor in determining Monday's threat.

Monday will be a tricky forecast and unless models start to lock in on capping/crapvection Monday morning, it's gonna be a tough D2/D3 forecast.
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yeah, but if Sunday just doesn't do anything then Monday could be well, an issue 1000% gotta watch it
 
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