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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

I know it's not part of the range for this thread but has anyone started looking at the April 30th range? Spann mentioned something about it looking big in his tweet this morning. Haven't had a chance to look at the models and obviously we're still 7 days out, but wanted to see if it's caught anyone's eye yet.

ETA: Only asking as Spann usually doesn't mention things 7+ days out if he doesn't think there might be something going on. I remember last year he was talking up 3/15 over a week out and that's when I realized it could be big.
 
bckhd2 said:
I know it's not part of the range for this thread but has anyone started looking at the April 30th range? Spann mentioned something about it looking big in his tweet this morning. Haven't had a chance to look at the models and obviously we're still 7 days out, but wanted to see if it's caught anyone's eye yet.
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Yeah, it's been discussed a few times in the annual severe weather thread. Will likely need its own dedicated thread soon, but it's separate from this disturbance synoptically-speaking, so we've kept it separate for now.
 
Since I can’t seem to get the CIPS analogs to show up on my phone, I’ll ask y’all here: is May 19, 2013 popping up for Sunday’s threat as an analog?

Given the capping concerns, I could see a reasonable outcome for Sunday being something approaching that day where we have two discrete, long-lived tornadic supercells producing intense to potentially violent tornadoes.
 
I can definitely see that 30% get expanded into North MS for Monday
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
@tennessee storm chaser, heads up, this is looking like a concern for your area too!
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100 percent with u good friend … I have not liked the trends last 18 to 24 hours …. Thanx for good info you out along others. Im a fan of severe wx. But course wish for. Best . Guess I got a little trimmer in me lol
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Since I can’t seem to get the CIPS analogs to show up on my phone, I’ll ask y’all here: is May 19, 2013 popping up for Sunday’s threat as an analog?

Given the capping concerns, I could see a reasonable outcome for Sunday being something approaching that day where we have two discrete, long-lived tornadic supercells producing intense to potentially violent tornadoes.
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Today kind of feels like 5/19/23 imo.
 
Saturday shouldn't be overlooked, either. 12Z 3K NAM and HRW-FV3 are out to 00Z Sunday (7 PM CDT Saturday), and both initiate supercells along and/or south of the KS-OK border within a volatile environment. It might be what we originally thought Sunday was going to be (and that's assuming Sunday won't be, which is still an assumption at this point).
 
@CheeselandSkies you could basically say that every day from now thru end of month (extending into first week of May) has severe storm potential.
 
Loom
Ozonelayer said:
Remarkable signal from the 12z GEFS Ensembles (Mean SCP and then Ensemble SCP) for Monday. Really beginning to think we see a pretty significant and robust severe weather threat on Monday.



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Looks Like it’s zero in on a major
Midsouth outbreak those members r least
 
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