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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

There actually seems to be a CMU field developing in KS, looking at SKEW-T, the inversion layer is definitely weaker than modeled, so perhaps a higher chance of initiation than expected.
Considering how extreme the parameter space is today, Im hoping that the worst case is that storms fire but quickly get cut in half by the inversion layer and increasing LLJ.
 
Man, the NAM is really all over the place. Changing dramatically with every run.

12z


18z


The HRRR on the other hand has been much more consistent (scroll right).



The RAP has also been consistent, but has definitely escalated significantly with the latest run. It also just adds to the confusion of how intense these storms will be (scroll right).

 
Worth noting the CAMs are in much better agreement about the general area where convection will be happening, it's just the intensity of that convection where there's significant variability. And now that i'm seeing all the models together in one post, it does appear the NAM and RAP are decently in agreement.
 
jiharris0220 said:
There actually seems to be a CMU field developing in KS, looking at SKEW-T, the inversion layer is definitely weaker than modeled, so perhaps a higher chance of initiation than expected.
Considering how extreme the parameter space is today, Im hoping that the worst case is that storms fire but quickly get cut in half by the inversion layer and increasing LLJ.
Click to expand...
And we have initiation down in KS now
 
Max dismissed the tornado threat on the Wichita storm but I don't think he's aware that the environment there is actually rather decent.
 
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