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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

The SPC has added a 10% hatched for the warm front/triple point section of the warm sector today. Good call.
What’s different about the set up is that most of the convection initiates south of the warm front.
Thankfully upscale growth happens quickly, however it’s the convection furthest south near Lake Michigan, the one supercell at the triple point, and the few earliest occurring OWS cells that warrant the concern.
As all of these will be in an environment with extreme kinematics and vertical instability, such as SRH values being above 300, PBL shear being 30-40knots, EBWD above 40knots, LLR above 7c/km, and CAPE values ranging from 3000 to 4000+.
 
I'm eying Indiana/Michigan big time tmrw after night. If a supercell establishes itself in volatile kinematics (400+ 0-1km SRH), significant tornadoes are possible. The MCS could also produce significant damaging winds and embedded tornadoes too.

Regarding today, upscale growth will be quick but if a supercell establishes itself, strong tornado possible. I'm really not interested in today as much as I was but there is a window there
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
It's absolutely mind boggling to me that we've got 4000 j/kg CAPE, 200-400 SRH, 40-70 knots effective shear, a stout EML, and 7+ 0-6km lapse rates, yet we aren't looking at a potential outbreak in the midwest here..

Click to expand...

There is, just only near and around the warm front where the short wave trough is closest.
Forcing mechanism simply isn’t strong enough anywhere further south to overcome the inversion layer.
The 3km NAM is the only model that convects the dryline for whatever reason but it’s very much likely out for lunch.
If cams had shown consistent initiation of more of the dryline we likely would be looking at a moderate risk here.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I'm eying Indiana/Michigan big time tmrw after night. If a supercell establishes itself in volatile kinematics (400+ 0-1km SRH), significant tornadoes are possible. The MCS could also produce significant damaging winds and embedded tornadoes too.

Regarding today, upscale growth will be quick but if a supercell establishes itself, strong tornado possible. I'm really not interested in today as much as I was but there is a window there
Click to expand...

How does the HRRR normally do with outflow boundaries? Do you think the storms moving out of Michigan at 12z Tuesday could help initiate supercells later that day? As of now the HRRR doesn't show anything firing in the most potent area of Southern Michigan, and it's storms from Wisconsin that eventually overspread the area.

I also can't believe how much discrepancy there is with the models on the STPs (scroll right).



I do really think the SPC needs to highlight a small CIG 2 area on the Iowa/Minnesota border for tonight because these SRH values are unhinged.



Lastly, it's strange how different the NAM is from every other CAM. The environment it's showing in Kansas is extreme. The Bridge Creek analog is making another appearance, but also notice that 91% of analogs were tornadic.

 
Grand Poo Bah said:
How does the HRRR normally do with outflow boundaries? Do you think the storms moving out of Michigan at 12z Tuesday could help initiate supercells later that day? As of now the HRRR doesn't show anything firing in the most potent area of Southern Michigan, and it's storms from Wisconsin that eventually overspread the area.

I also can't believe how much discrepancy there is with the models on the STPs (scroll right).



I do really think the SPC needs to highlight a small CIG 2 area on the Iowa/Minnesota border for tonight because these SRH values are unhinged.



Lastly, it's strange how different the NAM is from every other CAM. The environment it's showing in Kansas is extreme. The Bridge Creek analog is making another appearance, but also notice that 91% of analogs were tornadic.

Click to expand...

But the 12z did fire in SW MI and had somewhat a semi discrete supercell moving through this conditionally volatile environment.

That's why I'm concerned.

Also the CIG2 imo you say should be needed is in big uncertainty due to the potential for rapid upscale growth. Will a supercell latch on to the WF, will it establish long enough? Too much uncertainty. Either way, the environment is decently worthy for a significant tornado or two today
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
@WesL you gotta look into a different hosting service, brotha. The site hasn't been working properly for weeks, and it goes down almost everyday. It's super sluggish again today, and for the 4th time in the last 30 days image uploads are broken. Really don't want to sound entitled or ungrateful, but you've got a very active and growing community here, and these problems are significantly handicapping it.
Click to expand...
Yeah having issues again here
 
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