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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
But the 12z did fire in SW MI and had somewhat a semi discrete supercell moving through this conditionally volatile environment.

That's why I'm concerned.

Also the CIG2 imo you say should be needed is in big uncertainty due to the potential for rapid upscale growth. Will a supercell latch on to the WF, will it establish long enough? Too much uncertainty. Either way, the environment is decently worthy for a significant tornado or two today
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But the CIG classification is less about probabilities and more about the ceiling, right? If an isolated supercell manages to sustain itself uninterrupted in this environment tonight, I'm not sure EF2 is the reasonable max intensity (Cig 1). It'd likely be much stronger.

You're right about the 12z HRRR. I misinterpreted it. Storm initiation just looks a little disconnected from the highest STPs. Like it's happening around the strongest parameters rather than amongst them. I wonder if there will end up being more overlap than is being shown right now. I'm definitely over analyzing here haha.
 
Kds86z said:
Gotta text the sister in northern IL yet again.. lol,
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I feel like whenever there's a threat for northern/northeastern illinois it always seems to just dissipate and/or move more south/north of where I live, so when im forecasting for my area, and tell people that it could be big, it always just doesn't happen and then people criticize. tomorrow's gonna be a real big hit or miss, so we'll see how everything lines up in the morning.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
But the CIG classification is less about probabilities and more about the ceiling, right? If an isolated supercell manages to sustain itself uninterrupted in this environment tonight, I'm not sure EF2 is the reasonable max intensity (Cig 1). It'd likely be much stronger.

You're right about the 12z HRRR. I misinterpreted it. Storm initiation just looks a little disconnected from the highest STPs. Like it's happening around the strongest parameters rather than amongst them. I wonder if there will end up being more overlap than is being shown right now. I'm definitely over analyzing here haha.
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CIG2 is a lot harder to get than you might think. It is about the ceiling but you still don't want to overdo things, and personally I believe that the probability of the ceiling verifying is a bit low and probably doesn't warrant any higher. The SPC has done well with placement and as long as there's a CIG1 out, it does state the threat for strong tornadoes.
 
Seems like this is the story of this year so far. High ceiling, but very conditional setups. And this is another difficult and weird forecast to nail for today and tomorrow. However all it takes is one storm to take advantage of its environment.
 
HODOGRAPH WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE, AND THE 19Z MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS OVER 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, SUGGESTING SUPERCELL
STORM MODES. OCCASIONAL RUNS OF SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE DEPICTED THE INITIATION OF STOUT, LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ORIGINATING FROM THIS MESOSCALE SCENARIO.

 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I'm eying Indiana/Michigan big time tmrw after night. If a supercell establishes itself in volatile kinematics (400+ 0-1km SRH), significant tornadoes are possible. The MCS could also produce significant damaging winds and embedded tornadoes too.

Regarding today, upscale growth will be quick but if a supercell establishes itself, strong tornado possible. I'm really not interested in today as much as I was but there is a window there
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Where in Michigan? I've got friends and loved ones in various parts of the Mitten.
 
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