Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[Kds86z]

 

[Muwx]

Kansas storm has minimal tornado potential until it can turn right.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Some pretty intriguing real world soundings from the last few hours. Especially in OKC. Latest HRRR run shows a cell breaking through the cap around 9pm.

 

[Muwx]

Kansas cell is splitting. Right split actually looks pretty strong currently.

 

[Tennie]

Meanwhile, KIWX radar is unfortunately down:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
448 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 /348 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/

...KIWX Radar is Out of Service...

KIWX is currently out of service due to an unknown issue.
Technicans are in route to troubleshoot the problem. A return to
service time is not known. Alternate radar sites include LOT,
IND, GRR, DTX, CLE and ILN.


$$

 

[cincywx]

Meanwhile, KIWX radar is unfortunately down:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
535 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 /435 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/

...KIWX Radar Returned To Service...

The KIWX 88D has been returned to service.

$$

Fisher

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I think this South Dakota cell is the one to watch. It's not in the exact spot the HRRR predicted, but it is in a pocket of high (and increasing) SRH just as forecast, and is right on schedule. Remains to seen if it'll be able to sustain itself in the capped environment though. It's tiny, but has a tiny echo top at 45k feet (when viewed from KABR or KMPX).

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I know we're in the beginning of today's event but maybe I was a bit too harsh on tmrw and not being a great environment. 10CIG1 expanded well into W MI would be useful. Volatile instability and strong kinematics, all it needs is a mechanism for surface based storms to tap into and you have a decent significant tornado threat.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Pretty high cloud base on the Kansas cell

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Where in Michigan? I've got friends and loved ones in various parts of the Mitten.

Areas of W MI but the MCS that goes through the central portion of the state could also be dangerous as well with significant damaging winds and several embedded tornadoes.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

The cell near Hayti, SD is also one to watch. lightning activity is ramping up quickly, and it's in the right spot.

 

[Kds86z]

Copic and chasers are flipping out over that Mn storm.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Muwx]

Kansas storm continues to try and organize. It has really slowed down, which could indicate that it is about to take amore eastward track. If that happens, it could be off to the races but still has plenty of work to do.

 

[eep]

Kansas storm continues to try and organize. It has really slowed down, which could indicate that it is about to take amore eastward track. If that happens, it could be off to the races but still has plenty of work to do.

Needs mergers, has no mass to it.

 

[ColdFront]

Needs mergers, has no mass to it.

Really teetering on that 20 degree T/d spread too. No obs to its direct east, but I imagine the spread would be more favorable.

Edit: tried to post a picture, but surprise, the site won’t let me.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm near Trimont, MN already has echo tops reaching 41,000 feet.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Wouldn't be lying if I said that Friday is beginning to really catch my eye. Even with this disagreement on models, most deterministic runs have not backed down on a solution of a widespread svr threat with all hazards in the Plains/Upper Midwest. This may be our highest ceiling day but Tuesday is a competitor for that as well.

The cell near Trumann, MN is very likely to be the main play over the next while. This may be the problem of the day if overconvection doesn't get to this one

 

[eep]

Lots of kidney beans in south MN, a bit alarming.

Also looks like the KS cell is about to get ran into, might give it more strength.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Wouldn't be lying if I said that Friday is beginning to really catch my eye. Even with this disagreement on models, most deterministic runs have not backed down on a solution of a widespread svr threat with all hazards in the Plains/Upper Midwest. This may be our highest ceiling day but Tuesday is a competitor for that as well.

The GEFS Ensembles are also in good agreement on a widespread significant threat in the plains. 18z GFS has a very sharp, 90 degree north-south dryline and perpendicular shear vectors in an extremely favorable environment. Friday is certainly a day to keep an eye on.