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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

2% fit far better for today in TX but we have got a tornado warning for a little mini supercell that was rotating. Minnesota hasn't fired due to lack of large scale ascent and other inhibiting factors but there's still time.

A cell actually has fired but does it have time? It is beginning to mature
 
By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60
kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into
central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb
low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs
developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If
supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the
warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which
may be strong tornadoes) may present itself.

This is from the latest D3, and it's pretty clear that potential for this area is uptrending decently for Tuesday. The potential for a mixed mode of discrete supercells or clusters is becoming rather likely, with potential for few tornadoes and perhaps strong across this corridor.

NAM is really, really struggling with convecting right now due to a nuclear EML but even the GFS convects in both corridors somewhat, scattered development along the dryline with all hazards and up in the Midwest, more of the same with a conditional supercellular risk. The best window is probably IL/IN atm.
 
The models just aren't handling Tuesday well at all. 60 hrs out and there is still plenty of uncertainty on what may happen. Not many models convect at all and even the EURO is struggling to depict convection accirately. Storms will probably fire in the Midwest and Plains off the dryline but where specifically is the main question because that differentiates the potent environment.

Regardless, it's sometime from IL/N IN down to S TX in a little curve that has the main area for tor potential if cells fire
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The models just aren't handling Tuesday well at all. 60 hrs out and there is still plenty of uncertainty on what may happen. Not many models convect at all and even the EURO is struggling to depict convection accirately. Storms will probably fire in the Midwest and Plains off the dryline but where specifically is the main question because that differentiates the potent environment.

Regardless, it's sometime from IL/N IN down to S TX in a little curve that has the main area for tor potential if cells fire
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yeah, im seeing a ton of disagreeance between models like (correct me if im wrong) rrfs vs nam, and other models. it'll be interesting to see what 0z hrrr sees, assuming it reaches the event.
 
jackhutwx said:
yeah, im seeing a ton of disagreeance between models like (correct me if im wrong) rrfs vs nam, and other models. it'll be interesting to see what 0z hrrr sees, assuming it reaches the event.
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It reaches 00z Wednesday so it'll give us a bit of clearance. GFS already served my opinion up though, potential for scattered all hazards in OK/TX/KS and the Midwest.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I haven't got the hype over Tuesday really. It doesn't even look that impressive of a environment, and the NAM is increasingly becoming a outlier. It's a pretty sporadic discrete supercell or MCS type day. Don't get the big hype
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honestly im leaning towards a hail-driven event more than a tornado-driven event with the stp values being so low.
 
00z HRRR fired scattered storms already in Oklahoma on Tuesday. Must note the potential for isolated damaging wind/tor potential in the NE due to the previous system.

Also, 00z HRRR clustered storms strongly for tmrw, this is a possible solution that would limit the significant tornado threat if to materialise.

00z HRRR has fired and has a cluster of supercells in E IA/W IL, but the environment really isn't that potent whatsoever with these cells.

Once again, Tuesday may be a widespread svr weather day in the Plains and Midwest but all of this "dangerous" talk is weird. -

On the other hand, the GFS did well convecting in both areas with sporadic development. That would be a very interesting all hazards threat in the Midwest with that one. I wouldn't pull the enhanced yet. But at least there's some agreement now on our main areas for Tuesday to eye out for.
 
Friday beginning to look interesting up I the upper Midwest and down I the Plains, that's a threat I'll be eying...
Wednesday in OK also looking like a day to eye. So far, my biggest concerns are

Tomorrow for potential WF sigtors if mods doesn't overconvect like 00z HRRR suggests
Tuesday: IA/IL has got that feel about it, a day that can maybe overperform in that department.
Wednesday: Oklahoma. Honing in on all hazards.
Thursday: bit of a break, but models are honing in on a sneaky overnight supercell risk down in SW OK and the Panhandle.
Friday: there's a bit of agreement that this day needs watching, upper Midwest and plains both at stake for a interesting event if trends holds. Changes will certainly take place.

After that, too much uncertainty to say if anything will really take place.

Long night of model watching, now off to bed for school... If you can't tell, I'm tired and not really bothered to do a in depth discussion haha. I have time in the morning to do one
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Friday beginning to look interesting up I the upper Midwest and down I the Plains, that's a threat I'll be eying...
Wednesday in OK also looking like a day to eye. So far, my biggest concerns are

Tomorrow for potential WF sigtors if mods doesn't overconvect like 00z HRRR suggests
Tuesday: IA/IL has got that feel about it, a day that can maybe overperform in that department.
Wednesday: Oklahoma. Honing in on all hazards.
Thursday: bit of a break, but models are honing in on a sneaky overnight supercell risk down in SW OK and the Panhandle.
Friday: there's a bit of agreement that this day needs watching, upper Midwest and plains both at stake for a interesting event if trends holds. Changes will certainly take place.

After that, too much uncertainty to say if anything will really take place.

Long night of model watching, now off to bed for school... If you can't tell, I'm tired and not really bothered to do a in depth discussion haha. I have time in the morning to do one
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yeah get some well-earned rest. i have around like 15 minutes give or take to look at things early morning tomorrow and also in between classes, so ill pop in if i can lol.
 
eep said:
My issue with tuesday is that it's too remiscient of 4/28 last year. Could it, unlike 4/28, verify? Maybe, but we'll have to see.
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I 100% agree with the 04/28 comparisons. The similarities are uncanny. The biggest difference is the 00z HRRR is showing convection in the most potent atmosphere. Almost none of the models were showing the cap bursting in the southern (and more potent) threat area on 04/28. I'm also trying my best to not let a past event set my expectations for this event just because there are similarities.



Also this isolated cell on the Iowa/Minnesota border has been present all day on the HRRR extended runs, and the UD helicity swath just keeps getting more and more absurd. Just a huge swath of 450+ SRH


 
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